This metric shows a breakdown of the percentage of profitable Bitcoin sovereign supply held by long-term holders (blue) and short-term holders (red). Sovereign supply is defined as long-term holder supply plus short-term holder supply (excluding supply, both of which are held on exchanges).
- The profit for the short-term holder cohort is 70%. This is the highest level in almost a year just before Luna’s collapse.
- Short-term holders are investors who have held bitcoin for less than 6 months and tend to think of it as a cohort where FOMO is at the top of the bull market and sells when the price drops.
- But short-term holders will also start new cycles and buy bitcoin when they find value. And finally turn it into LTH. Not always, but sometimes.
- Profits for short-term holders rise. This is seen after each of Bitcoin’s troughs and is highlighted in green.
- About six months ago it was September 1st. From an investor who bought bitcoin for around $15,500, he expects STH’s profits to continue to increase significantly around April, six months after the FTX collapse.
- CryptoSlate refers to STH and LTH cost bases. After that, the STH cost base tends to rise above the realized price and the LTH realized price, possibly signaling the end of the bear market.
Profit for post short-term Bitcoin holders is over 70%. A similar trend seen after each bear market bottom first emerged with CryptoSlate.