REX launches Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF
REX Shares, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) provider with over $6 billion in assets under management (AUM), launched its Bitcoin (BTC) Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond (BMAX) ETF that invests in the convertible bonds of companies with a BTC corporate reserve strategy.According to the March 14 announcement, the ETF will purchase the convertible notes of companies such as Strategy. Convertible notes are commercial paper that can be converted into equity at a predetermined rate if an investor chooses.Typically, these convertible bonds are purchased by institutional investors, including pension funds, some of which specialize in convertible note investing. Greg King, CEO of REX Financial, said:“Until now, these bonds have been difficult for individual investors to reach. BMAX removes those barriers, making it easier to invest in the strategy pioneered by Michael Saylor — leveraging corporate debt to acquire Bitcoin as a treasury asset.”Investing in convertible bonds, ETFs and the equity of companies such as Strategy, MARA and Metaplanet provides investors with indirect exposure to Bitcoin that removes the technical barrier to entry and self-custodial risks of holding BTC directly.Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor, who popularized corporate Bitcoin treasuries, speaks about the merits of BTC. Source: CointelegraphRelated: Michael Saylor’s Strategy to raise up to $21B to purchase more BitcoinStrategy a proxy Bitcoin bet for institutional investors Institutional investors may lack the technical sophistication to hold BTC directly or have legal or fiduciary constraints preventing them from investing in digital assets.At least 12 US states currently hold Strategy stock as part of their state pension funds and treasuries. Collectively, these states hold over $271 million in Strategy stock using current market prices.The list comprises Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, New Jersey, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin.California’s State Teachers’ Retirement Fund and its Public Employees Retirement System hold $67.2 million and $62.8 million in Strategy stock, respectively.Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases in 2025. Source: SaylorTrackerAccording to SaylorTracker, Strategy currently holds 499,096 BTC, valued at over $41.4 billion, making the company one of the largest corporate BTC holders in the world — eclipsing the US government’s estimated 198,000 BTC.Strategy’s most recent Bitcoin purchase occurred on Feb. 24, when the company acquired 20,356 BTC for nearly $2 billion.Magazine: ‘China’s MicroStrategy’ Meitu sells all its Bitcoin and Ethereum: Asia Express
Watch these Bitcoin price levels as BTC retests key $84K resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) circled $83,000 at the March 14 Wall Street open as traders set out requirements to flip bullish.BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBTC price RSI teases key “bullish divergence”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining up to 5% on the day before consolidating.A characteristic lack of momentum at the start of the US trading session persisted, with risk assets still wary of macroeconomic and geopolitical surprises, notably in the form of US trade tariffs.Assessing the current status quo on the daily BTC/USD chart, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital reported increasing odds of a bullish divergence playing out on the relative strength index (RSI) metric.Here, RSI should make higher lows as the price forms lower lows to indicate waning seller dominance.“Promising early-stage signs of a Bullish Divergence developing,” he wrote in one of the day’s posts on X.“Reclaiming the previous lows of $84k could set price up to further build out this Bull Div.”BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/XAnother post flagged a key horizontal resistance line currently under attack from bulls.“Bitcoin continues to Daily Close below the blue resistance. However, each rejection from this resistance appears to be weakening in terms of follow-through to the downside,” Rekt Capital commented.“If this weakening in the resistance persists… This should open up the opportunity for BTC to finally Daily Close above this $84k resistance, reclaim it as support, and finally trend continue to the upside.”BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/XKeith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, meanwhile focused on the 21-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). At the time of writing, these stood at $83,740 and $86,800, respectively.“BTC is poised to make another run at reclaiming the 200-Day MA, but it will only count if we get a sustained close above it, AND it is closely followed by an R/S Flip at the 21-Day MA,” an X post on the topic read.BTC/USD 1-day chart with 21, 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAlan referenced one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools, calling for an increase in “bullish momentum.”“Notice how Trend Precognition’s A1 Slope line is showing a developing momentum shift,” he commented alongside a corresponding chart. “Reverting from downward momentum is step 1. We need to see an increase in bullish momentum from here, with bids moving higher to stage a sustainable rally.”BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/XGold leaves Bitcoin in the dustElsewhere, the S&P 500 saw some welcome relief at the open after dropping 10% from its latest all-time highs to officially begin a technical correction.Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — ResearchMeanwhile, gold set new record highs of over $3,000 per ounce as investors sought shelter from turbulent macro conditions.As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin broke a key long-term trendline against gold as its relative underperformance in 2025 became all the more visible.XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Price analysis 3/14: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, ADA, DOGE, PI, LEO, LINK
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen back above the 200-day simple moving average ($83,754), indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The failure of the bears to capitalize on the drop below the 200-day SMA shows that selling dries up at lower levels.However, Bitcoin may not be out of the woods yet. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland said in a video posted to X that Bitcoin needs a weekly close above $89,000 to confirm a bottom. A move above $89,000 could liquidate roughly $1.60 billion in short positions, according to CoinGlass data. If that does not happen, Hyland warns that Bitcoin will fall into the $74,000 to $69,000 range.Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360Buyers have a challenging task ahead of them. The inflows of $13.3 million into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on March 12 could not be sustained, and the ETFs recorded outflows of $135.2 million on March 13, per Farside Investors data. This shows that the investors remain nervous and are pressing the sell button on new tariff threats and actions by US President Donald Trump.Could Bitcoin surge to $100,000, pulling select altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.Bitcoin price analysisBitcoin bulls are trying to start a recovery but are expected to face significant resistance in the zone between the 200-day SMA and the 20-day exponential moving average ($86,717).BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the break below the 200-day SMA may have been a bear trap. The BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($93,876) and, after that, to the $100,000 psychological barrier.Conversely, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance zone with force, it will indicate that the bears are in command. That increases the likelihood of a drop to the vital support at $73,777. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $73,777 level because a drop below it may pull the pair to $67,000.Ether price analysisEther (ETH) has been trading in a tight range between $1,963 and $1,754, indicating a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe relative strength index (RSI) is showing early signs of forming a positive divergence. If the price rises above $1,963, the ETH/USDT pair could climb to the breakdown level of $2,111. This level may attract aggressive selling by the bears, but if the bulls persist, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($2,597).This optimistic view will be negated if the price turns down from the current level of $2,111 and breaks below $1,754. That will signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair may then nosedive to $1,500.XRP price analysisXRP (XRP) rebounded off the $2 support on March 11 and reached the 20-day EMA ($2.35) on March 13.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe bears are trying to halt the recovery at the 20-day EMA, but the bulls have kept up the pressure. That increases the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. The XRP/USDT pair may then rise to $2.64. If this level is cleared, the pair could rally to $3.Contrarily, if the price turns down sharply from the current level, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative. The pair may retest the crucial $2 support, and if this level gives way, the pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. That may sink the pair to $1.28.BNB price analysisBNB (BNB) rose above the 20-day EMA ($591) on March 13, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels, as seen from the long wick on the candlestick.BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe bulls are again trying to push the price above the 20-day EMA. The BNB/USDT pair could challenge the 50-day SMA ($624) if they can pull it off. A break and close above the 50-day SMA will suggest that the correction may be over. The pair could then attempt a rally to $686.If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to yank the price below the $500 support. The pair may then fall to $460, which is expected to attract aggressive buying by the bulls.Solana price analysisSolana (SOL) has been trading above the $120 level, but the bulls have failed to push the price above $132.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf the price skids below $120, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $110. This is a critical support to watch out for because a break and close below it may start a downward move to $98 and then to $80.On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($178), where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.Cardano price analysisCardano (ADA) was rejected from the 20-day EMA ($0.77) on March 12, signaling that the bears are selling on rallies.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe ADA/USDT pair could drop to the uptrend line, which is an important level for the bulls to defend. If the price bounces off the uptrend line with strength, it will improve the prospects of a break above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could rise to $1.02.This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the uptrend line. That could start a slide to $0.58 and subsequently to the Feb. 3 intraday low of $0.50.Dogecoin price analysisDogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the $0.14 support on March 11, indicating that the bulls are trying to defend the level.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe relief rally is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.19). If the price turns down sharply from $0.19, it increases the possibility of a break below $0.14. The DOGE/USDT pair could then plummet to $0.10.Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price hits a record $3KThe first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.24). Sellers will try to stall the up move at the 50-day SMA, but if the bulls pierce the resistance, the pair could climb to $0.29.Pi price analysisPi’s (PI) recovery stalled at $1.80 on March 13, indicating that the bears are selling on every minor rally.PI/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe bears will try to sink the price to $1.20, which is a crucial level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off $1.20, it will indicate a possible range formation. The PI/USDT pair could oscillate between $1.20 and $1.80 for some time.Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below $1.20, it will signal the resumption of the downward move. The pair could descend to the 78.6% retracement level of $0.72.UNUS SED LEO price analysisUNUS SED LEO (LEO) has been trading near the $10 overhead resistance, indicating that the bulls have kept up the pressure.LEO/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewA break and close above $10 will complete a bullish ascending triangle pattern, which could start an upmove toward the pattern target of $12.04.The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to pull the price to the uptrend line, which is an important level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the uptrend line, it will signal that the LEO/USD pair may remain inside the triangle for a while. The bears will gain the upper hand on a break and close below the uptrend line. That could sink the pair to $8.84 and later to $8.30.Chainlink price analysisChainlink (LINK) plunged and closed below the support line of the descending channel pattern on March 10, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels.LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe bulls have pushed the price back into the channel on March 14, but their efforts are likely to be met with strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($15.14). If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink the LINK/USDT pair below $11.85. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to $10.On the contrary, a break and close above the 20-day EMA will signal that the markets have rejected the break below the channel. The pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($18.27).This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Congress repealed the IRS broker rule, but can it regulate DeFi?
The decentralized finance (DeFi) industry is breathing a sigh of relief as Congress relaxes reporting obligations, but questions remain about how lawmakers will regulate DeFi.On March 12, the House of Representatives voted to nullify a rule that required DeFi protocols to report gross proceeds from crypto sales, as well as info on taxpayers involved, to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The rule, which the IRS issued in December 2024 and wasn’t set to take effect until 2027, was regarded by major industry lobby groups as burdensome and beyond the agency’s authority. The White House has already signaled its support for the bill. President Donald Trump is ready to sign when it reaches his desk. But DeFi observers note that the industry has yet to strike a balance between privacy and regulation. Bipartisan vote on repealing the rule. Source: DeFi Education FundPrivacy concerns over IRS DeFi ruleThe crypto industry was quick to laud the vote in the House. Marta Belcher, president of the Filecoin Foundation, said that blocking the rule was particularly important for user privacy. She told Cointelegraph it is “critical to protect people’s ability to transact directly with each other via open-source code (like smart contracts and decentralized exchanges) while remaining anonymous, in the same way that people can transact directly with each other using cash.”Privacy concerns were central to the crypto industry’s objections to the rule, with industry observers claiming that it was not fit for purpose and infringed on user privacy. Bill Hughes, senior counsel and director of global regulatory matters for Consensys Software wrote in December 2024, “Trading front ends would have to track and report on user activity — both US persons and non-US persons […] And it applies to the sale of every single digital asset — including NFTs and even stablecoins.”The Blockchain Association, a major crypto industry lobby group, stated that the rule was “an infringement on the privacy rights of individuals using decentralized technology” that would push DeFi offshore.While the rule has been stopped for now, there still aren’t fixed privacy guidelines in place — something Etherealize CEO Vivek Raman said the industry needs to move forward. “There needs to be clear frameworks for blockchain-based privacy while maintaining [Know Your Customer/Anti-Money Laundering] requirements,” he told Cointelegraph.Raman stated that some transactions and customer data will need to remain private, “and we need guidance on what privacy can look like.”How do you regulate DeFi?The crypto space has long juggled user privacy demands and regulators’ Anti-Money Laundering and Know Your Customer concerns. One problem lies in the technology itself — if a network is created by many and controlled by no single entity, who can the government contact? Per Raman, “It’s hard for a decentralized protocol that is controlled by nobody to issue 1099s or fulfill broker-dealer responsibilities! Companies can certainly be [broker-dealers], but software has not been designed for [broker-dealer] rules.”DeFi developers can and have been proactive in working with regulators, Chainalysis suggested, as was the case with certain protocols freezing funds after the disastrous $285 million KuCoin hack. Related: Timeline: How Bybit’s lost Ethereum went through North Korea’s washing machineCinneamhain Ventures partner and consultant Adam Cochran claimed that every protocol has certain pressure points regulators could press on if a protocol were used to commit a crime:Source: Adam CochranHowever, these specific instances do not make a comprehensive regulatory framework that both the industry and investor protection agencies can point to. In that regard, crypto analytics firm Chainalysis stated in 2020 that regulators may need to craft regulations for the DeFi space with decentralized reporting limitations in mind. Raman suggested that one possible solution could be zero-knowledge proofs, which allow users to confirm certain data without revealing it. He is optimistic about regulators’ ability to find a way to regulate the space while still maintaining user privacy: “I think we’ll see a positive sum environment where DeFi and compliance will coexist.”The long-awaited crypto regulatory framework Trump has already made a number of pro-crypto measures through executive orders and appointing pro-crypto individuals to head parts of his administration — the most recent being the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserveThe pro-crypto tenure of important financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has dropped a number of high-profile enforcement cases against crypto firms.While notable, the big fish that the crypto industry is waiting for is the crypto regulatory framework and stablecoin bills circulating in Congress, which would give the industry the guardrails it claims it needs to thrive. On March 13, the Senate Banking Committee approved the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin bill, putting it one step closer to a vote on the Senate floor. The crypto framework bill, FIT 21, was first introduced in the 2024 legislative session, ultimately failing in the Senate. However, in February, House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill said that he anticipated the bill could pass in this session with “modest changes.”But even if FIT 21 were passed soon, regulations for DeFi could be far off. The bill would exclude DeFi from SEC and CFTC oversight, but it would also establish a working group to research 12 key areas related to DeFi. This study will seek to understand the risks and benefits of DeFi and will ultimately make regulatory recommendations. Magazine: Vitalik on AI apocalypse, LA Times both-sides KKK, LLM grooming: AI Eye
Trump’s crypto task force should work with as much enthusiasm as DOGE
Opinion by: Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer, Komodo PlatformThe Crypto Task Force held a press conference in early February 2025. It struck the wrong tone. While the task force gave lip service to regulatory clarity, the goal seemed to placate the crypto industry, not bring about change that empowers individuals. On Jan. 23, the president established a working group for digital assets to propose a federal regulatory framework around issuing and operating digital assets, including stablecoins and a Bitcoin reserve. These goals must be expanded upon, and it seems they are, as the development of a strategic reserve is now underway. Instead of perpetuating the same discussion on “regulatory clarity” that the industry has been having with officials for years, the task force should take a similar approach to crypto matters as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has been working in feverish haste to cut federal agencies and programs that it has deemed wasteful.What the force should doInstead, the Crypto Task Force should expose the perils of central bank inflationary money that puts humanity on a neverending treadmill toward desperation. It should cultivate a spirit of competition and adopting decentralized, permissionless currencies. The Task Force should persuade lawmakers to adopt a laissez-faire crypto structure while effectively stamping out the rampant fraud by the truly bad actors who exploit people’s false hopes of quick riches. The Crypto Task Force should put out press releases warning people about obvious scams. It should also teach people the virtues of proof-of-work and the follies of many proof-of-stake coins. The goal of Trump’s crypto task force should be simple: Establish a freedom-focused growth trajectory for the crypto industry in the US without delay. The freedom age Trump has clarified that he wants to promote the responsible growth and use of crypto. Such recommendations only hold as much merit as they grant entrepreneurs the freedom to take risks and curtail massive corporations from rolling out a digital panopticon with centralized cryptocurrencies. Recent: SEC task force continues meeting with firms over crypto regulationsIf the US is to be competitive with countries like the United Arab Emirates, the US must create a regulatory sandbox that enables founders to develop technology — including controversial technologies like decentralized coin mixers — in legal gray areas without the fear of prison or jail time so long as they are not blatantly breaking pre-existing law. It’s time to let the market decideBefore Trump was elected, US crypto founders contended with seemingly arbitrary Securities and Exchange Commission witch hunts, which have ensnared even the most respected crypto institutions, such as Coinbase and Kraken. The SEC went after Ripple for issuing an alleged unregistered security, but Ripple enjoyed significant wins in that case, especially when selling tokens to institutions. Countless founders have been de-banked in the US for having founded even crypto-adjacent companies. That suggests there has been an all-out war by Washington and big banks against the industry. That has to end, and the damage that has been done must be repaired. The Crypto Task Force cannot protect big banks against crypto. It must let the market decide.Although many suits have been dropped, lawmakers have their work cut out for them. So much has changed since the 20th century, when the US was a world leader in the development of the internet. It has fallen far behind in crypto. What the US needs now is innovation, not crypto red tape. The world has Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) laws. The Crypto Task Force mustn’t waste time developing a separate set of AML and KYC laws. Instead of studying the feasibility of a Bitcoin reserve, just put the Bitcoin confiscated from Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road, under the management of the Treasury and call it a day instead of selling it. The Crypto Task Force must work now to build a renewed spirit of technological innovation in the United States. Countries in Asia have demonstrated a higher level of participation at the retail level. The US needs a strategy to educate and empower the retail investing public to partake in exciting and new markets like blockchain and AI. The US must switch from a conservative approach to crypto toward a progressive approach akin to what we’ve seen in the UAE.The US has already suffered a brain drain, as entrepreneurs have left to pursue opportunities in friendlier jurisdictions. If the US had developed a welcoming Bitcoin approach, El Salvador could have never attracted talent from the US.Too much freedom has already been lost in the US. The Trump administration must unleash the crypto-anarchists with the enthusiasm of DOGE in the spirit of some of the US’s greatest freedom thinkers, like Henry David Thoreau and others.Long ago, the US fell behind in the crypto arm’s race. It will take work to catch up, and the more radical the approach taken by the Crypto Task Force, the quicker the gap can be closed.If it doesn’t, you can bet we crypto-anarchists will be storming the gates. Opinion by: Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer, Komodo Platform.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price hits a record $3K
Bitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14. XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/NorthStarPopular analyst NorthStar says this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a month. Is Bitcoin’s bull market over? Let’s take a closer look at BTC’s correlation with gold. Gold hits new record high as Bitcoin’s uptrend coolsThe BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by about 12.80% year-to-date. In contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called “digital gold,” has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.For instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in inflows.Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.comOn the other hand, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD, according to onchain data platform Glassnode. US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source: Glassnode The driving force behind this divergence lies in growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — ResearchNew tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, central banks, including those in the US, China, and the UK, have accelerated their gold purchases, further boosting gold prices. Countries that acquired the most gold so far in 2025. Source: GoldHub.comIn contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76.BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingViewHas Bitcoin price topped?The current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical patterns, particularly the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which preceded the last bear market.At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence, characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested diminishing upward momentum.BTC/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewConsequently, the ratio initially retreated toward the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) support level before ultimately plummeting by 60%.That BTC/XAU breakdown period coincided with Bitcoin’s 68% correction against the US dollar.BTC/USD two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/XAU has once again completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing the 2021–2022 fractal. BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source: TradingViewWith the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be fading, increasing the probability of further declines, especially if the ratio drops decisively below the 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).As a result, it could also indicate Bitcoin’s increased vulnerability to price declines in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 acting as the next potential downside target.BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThat is down about 40% from Bitcoin’s record high of around $110,000 established in January. Still, Nansen analysts consider such a decline as a “correction within a bull market,” raising possibilities of a bullish revival if the 50-2W EMA holds as support. However, a definitive break below the EMA could thrust Bitcoin into bear market territory. That could drag Bitcoin’s 2025 downside target toward the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave) to as low as $34,850 if this Bitcoin-gold fractal repeats. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Worst crypto cycle ever? Community and history say otherwise
The cryptocurrency market has faced a significant downturn since the start of 2025, with some investors calling it the most painful cycle in history.Some were disappointed about industry policy changes and the memecoin craze in the United States, while others even speculated about talent leaving the sector for other industries.However, while the current crypto market state might look grim to some, the current cycle is far from being the most brutal on record, and many community members remain bullish.“For those who have been through multiple cycles, this is just part of the process,” Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon told Cointelegraph.The post-Trump inauguration saleThe current decline in crypto markets came after Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high above $106,000 in December 2024, with the spike largely attributed to optimism around Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.While many were optimistic, some investors, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, accurately predicted a crypto sell-off following Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.Bitcoin price chart since October 2024. Source: CoinGeckoSince then, Bitcoin has tumbled more than 18%, with the total crypto market capitalization erasing almost all gains that came from Trump’s election win, dropping 25%.In the post-Trump inauguration sale, investors offloaded about $4.6 billion from crypto exchange-traded products by March 7, while the spot market saw even more outflows, with at least $1 billion in liquidations in a single day on March 3.What was the most brutal crypto sell-off in history?But the most recent sell-off is not the worst on record. “If we’re talking about the worst Bitcoin cycle, 2014–2015 was possibly the most brutal,” Trezor’s Bourdon told Cointelegraph.Referring to the collapse of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange, which suffered an 850,000 BTC loss in a security breach in 2024, the analyst highlighted the event as the worst Bitcoin sell-off on record. Bitcoin price chart in the period from July 2013 to July 2016. Source: CoinGecko“The Mt. Gox collapse wiped out 70% of Bitcoin’s trading volume, leading to an 85% drawdown in a market with no institutional support and far less liquidity,” Bourdon said.More than just falling pricesAccording to Brett Reeves, head of BitGo’s European sales, there is a “great deal more to just falling pieces” in the current market.In addition to bigger price downturns in the past, Reeves highlighted notable advancements in global crypto products and regulation, which point to crypto assets increasingly becoming integral to the international financial system. He said:“While prices may be crashing for now, we must remember how far we’ve come in a short space in time and just how much potential this space has in the years ahead.”Contrary to crypto doubters and pessimists, some industry executives even see the current market cycle as a bull market.Related: EU retaliatory tariffs threaten Bitcoin correction to $75K — Analysts“I actually think it’s the best,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph, adding:“What sets this bull market apart from previous crypto bull runs is that it’s the first time we’ve seen prices rising over time that is not accompanied by copious money printing. This pullback is a short-term pain that will enable long-term gain.”According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, terms like “bull market,” “bear market,” “cycle,” or “altseason” are not even suitable for the current market situation.Source: Miles Deutscher“This is a different market now,” he said in an X post on March 13.Magazine: Trump-Biden bet led to obsession with ‘idiotic’ NFTs —Batsoupyum, NFT Collector
FTX liquidated $1.5B in 3AC assets 2 weeks before hedge fund’s collapse
Newly revealed court documents show that FTX secretly liquidated $1.53 billion in Three Arrows Capital (3AC) assets just two weeks before the hedge fund collapsed in 2022. The disclosure challenged previous narratives that 3AC’s downfall was solely market-driven.Once valued at over $10 billion, 3AC collapsed in mid-2022 after a series of leveraged directional trades turned sour. The hedge fund had borrowed from over 20 large institutions before the May 2022 crypto crash, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) fall to $16,000.However, recently-discovered evidence shows that the FTX exchange liquidated $1.53 billion worth of 3AC’s assets just two weeks ahead of the hedge fund’s collapse.3AC “asked a bankruptcy court to let it increase its claim against FTX from $120 million to $1.53 billion,” according to “Mbottjer,” the pseudonymous co-founder of FTX Creditor, a group FTX creditors and bankruptcy claim buyers.“3AC says it only recently discovered evidence that FTX liquidated $1.53B of 3AC’s assets just two weeks before 3AC itself went into liquidation, much more than the $120M originally claimed,” they stated.Source: MbottjerThe crypto hedge fund claims it was never notified of these liquidations due to FTX’s own bankruptcy proceedings. A court ruled that 3AC acted in good faith, allowing it to pursue its full $1.53 billion claim in FTX’s bankruptcy case.On Dec. 21, 2023, a British Virgin Islands court froze $1.14 billion worth of 3AC co-founder Kyle Davies and Su Zhu’s assets. Teneo has since estimated that 3AC creditors are still owed roughly $3.3 billion following the hedge fund’s collapse in 2022.Davies claimed that allegations from Teneo — the firm in charge of 3AC’s liquidation — that he and co-founder Su Zhu were “not cooperating” were exaggerated.Related: US court gives Three Arrows nod to increase its FTX claim to $1.53BMissing $1.5 billion not enough to avoid 3AC collapseWhile the $1.53 billion sum is significantly larger than FTX’s previously disclosed liquidations, it may not have been enough to save 3AC from bankruptcy, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen:“From what I can see, even if they in 2022 had the additional $1.5 billion they still would not have been able to meet creditor claims/debt repayments.”“Without being a legal expert, it seems to me that 3AC, while being allowed to pursue a much larger amount, likely won’t get the full $1.53 billion claim. It seems realistic that they will get more, but how much is uncertain,” the analyst added.Related: 3AC liquidators file $1.3B claim against Terraform LabsBinance co-founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao called the revelations an “interesting turn of events.”Source: CZ BNB“I am curious if FTX had anything to do with the LUNA/UST crash/depeg in May 2022,” Zhao said in a March 14 X post.The collapse of 3AC occurred a month after that of Terraform Labs’ Terra (LUNC) and TerraClassicUSD (USTC) tokens and shortly before crypto lender Celsius paused all user withdrawals after its native token Celsius (CEL) dropped 90%.Magazine: ‘Hong Kong’s FTX’ victims win lawsuit, bankers bash stablecoins: Asia Express