Bitcoin price fails to go parabolic as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls — Why?
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 12% since March 2, when it nearly reached $94,000. Interestingly, during the same period, the US dollar weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, which is usually seen as a positive sign for scarce assets like BTC. Investors are now puzzled as to why Bitcoin hasn’t reacted positively to the declining DXY and what could be the next factor to trigger a decoupling from this trend.US Dollar Index (DXY, left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / CointelegraphUp to mid-2024, the US Dollar Index (DXY) had an inverse relationship with Bitcoin’s price, meaning the cryptocurrency often rose when the dollar weakened. During that time, Bitcoin was widely viewed as a hedge against inflation, thanks to its lack of correlation with the stock market and its fixed monetary policy, similar to digital gold.However, correlation does not imply causation, and the past eight months have shown that the rationale for investing in Bitcoin evolves over time. For instance, some analysts claim that Bitcoin’s price aligns with global monetary supply as central banks adjust economic policies, while others emphasize its role as uncensorable money, enabling free transactions for governments and individuals alike.Bitcoin gains from DXY weakness can take months or years to materializeJulien Bittel, the head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, pointed out that the recent drop in the US Dollar Index—from 107.6 on Feb. 28 to 103.60 on March 7—has occurred only three times in the past twelve years.Source: BittelJulienBittel’s post on X highlights that Bitcoin’s price surged after the last significant drop in the DXY Index in November 2022, as well as following the March 2020 event, when the US dollar fell from 99.5 to 95 during the early weeks of the COVID-19 crisis. His analysis emphasizes that “financial conditions lead risk assets by a couple of months. Right now, financial conditions are easing – and fast.”While Bittel’s comments are highly bullish for Bitcoin’s price, the positive effects of past US dollar weakness took more than six months to materialize and, in some cases, even a couple of years, such as during the 2016-17 cycle. The current underperformance of Bitcoin may be due to “short-term macro fears,” according to user @21_XBT.Source: 21_XBTThe analyst briefly cites several reasons for Bitcoin’s recent price weakness, including “Tariffs, Doge, Yen carry trade, yields, DXY, growth scares,” but concludes that none of these factors alter Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, suggesting its price will eventually benefit.For example, cuts by the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are highly positive for the economy in the medium term, as they reduce overall debt and interest payments, freeing up resources for productivity-boosting measures. Similarly, tariffs could prove beneficial if the Trump administration achieves a more favorable trade balance by increasing US exports, as this could pave the way for sustainable economic growth.Related: Crypto market’s biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economyThe measures taken by the US government have trimmed excessive but unsustainable growth, causing short-term pain while lowering yields on US Treasury notes, making it cheaper to refinance debt. However, there is no indication that the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency is weakening, nor is there reduced demand for US Treasurys. As a result, the recent decline in the DXY Index does not directly correlate with Bitcoin’s appeal.Over time, as user @21_XBT noted, macroeconomic fears will fade as central banks adopt more expansionary monetary policies to stimulate economies. This will likely lead Bitcoin to decouple from the DXY Index, setting the stage for a new all-time high in 2025.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Ripple files trademark application for custody service, wallet
Ripple Labs, the company behind the popular XRP token, has recently filed a trademark application for the term “Ripple Custody.” This move suggests that the company is looking to expand its brand into the crypto custody space.
The trademark filing lists four potential use cases for the term, including offering custodial services for cryptocurrency storage and management for financial purposes. This is a significant development as the demand for crypto custody services has been on the rise, especially since the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in 2024. Major players in this space include Coinbase, Citi, and BNY Mellon.
The filing comes after Ripple’s launch of its own custody service in October 2024, which aimed to diversify its revenue streams beyond its payment settlement service. However, a Ripple spokesperson declined to comment on the trademark filing.
One of the listed use cases in the filing also suggests that Ripple may be planning to launch a cryptocurrency wallet. This could potentially support its native token, XRP, or a wider range of digital assets. Currently, the company does not offer a crypto wallet, so this move could provide another source of revenue through transaction fees.
Other companies already offering support for XRP and other cryptocurrencies include Ledger and Trezor hardware wallets, Trust Wallet, Exodus, and many others. With the growing popularity of digital assets, it would not be surprising for Ripple to enter the crypto wallet market.
In a related development, Ran Neuner, the host of Crypto Banter, recently called Ripple “despicable” in a recent episode. However, he also acknowledged the success of ZachXBT, a popular crypto trader, and tipped his hat to him in the “Hall of Flame” segment.
In conclusion, Ripple’s trademark application for “Ripple Custody” and the potential launch of a crypto wallet could be significant moves for the company. It shows their commitment to expanding their brand and services in the ever-growing crypto industry.
Robinhood shares up 8% after launching betting markets hub
Robinhood has launched a betting markets hub as the online brokerage — best known for stock trading — expands its presence in emergent asset classes, including cryptocurrencies and event contracts, according to a March 17 announcement. Robinhood’s stock, HOOD, rose roughly 8% on the Nasdaq after the announcement, according to data from Google Finance. The new betting feature will let users “trade contracts for what the upper bound of the target fed funds rate will be in May, as well as the upcoming men’s and women’s College Basketball Tournaments,” it said. HOOD’s intraday performance on the Nasdaq on March 17. Source: Google FinanceThe online brokerage is tapping Kalshi, the US’ first CFTC-regulated prediction platform, to operate the event contract platform, it said. Kalshi is already registered to list dozens of event contracts, covering outcomes ranging from election results to Rotten Tomatoes movie ratings.Prediction markets “play an important role at the intersection of news, economics, politics, sports, and culture,” JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, said in a statement. Experts say political betting markets often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket accurately predicted US President Donald Trump’s November election win even as polls indicated a tossup.Related: Robinhood tips Singapore launch, touts memecoin interest: ReportRising popularityPrediction markets have become increasingly popular in the US since September 2024, when Kalshi prevailed in a lawsuit challenging a CFTC decision to bar it from listing political event contracts.By November, trading volumes across popular prediction markets neared $4 billion for contracts tied to the US elections.Robinhood tested the waters of political event contracts in October when it started letting certain users bet on the outcome of the presidential election between former Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump.In February, Robinhood suspended Super Bowl betting after receiving a request from the CFTC to nix its customers’ access to the event contracts.Beyond stock tradingRobinhood has been expanding its footprint in emerging asset classes, including cryptocurrencies and derivatives. On March 13, the company listed memecoins like Pengu (PENGU), Pnut (PNUT) and Popcat (POPCAT) in a bid to expand its presence in crypto. Back in January, it rolled out futures contracts tied to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC).Robihood’s latest earnings report shows the firm posted a 700% year-over-year jump in crypto revenues in the fourth quarter of 2024 as Trump’s election win and rising market prices fueled boosted crypto trading.X Hall of Flame: Memecoins will die and DeFi will rise again — Sasha Ivanov
XRP’s role in US Digital Asset Stockpile raises questions on token utility — Does it belong?
Ripple’s XRP (XRP), the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, gained national recognition after President Donald Trump mentioned the “valuable cryptocurrency” alongside BTC, ETH, SOL, and ADA as part of a planned US strategic crypto reserve. Trump’s executive order on March 6 established a new structure for the altcoins — the Digital Asset Stockpile, managed by the Treasury. While the crypto community remains divided on whether XRP is truly as valuable as President Trump suggests, a closer look at the altcoin’s utility is warranted. XRP’s potential role in bankingLaunched in 2012 by Ripple Labs, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) was designed for interbank settlements. It initially offered three enterprise solutions: xRapid, xCurrent, and xVia, all later rebranded under the RippleNet umbrella. XCurrent is real-time messaging and settlement between banks, xVia is a payment interface allowing financial institutions to send payments through RippleNet, and xRapid, now part of On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), facilitates cross-border transactions.Only ODL actually requires XRP; the other services allow banks to use RippleNet without ever holding the token. This means bank adoption of Ripple technology does not always drive XRP’s price.Some of the world’s largest banks have used xCurrent and xVia, including American Express, Santander, Bank of America, and UBS. There is less data on the entities that use XRP-powered ODL service. Known adopters include SBI Remit, a major Japanese remittance provider, and Tranglo, a leading remittance company in Southeast Asia.XRP’s role in Web3XRP is also used as a gas token. However, unlike the Ethereum network, where fees go to validators, a small amount of XRP is burned as an anti-spam mechanism.XRP’s role in Web3 is minimal. Unlike Ethereum, Ripple does not support complex smart contracts or DApps. It offers only basic Web3 functionality, such as a token issuance mechanism and native NFT support under the XLS-20 standard, introduced in 2022.The XRPL Web3 ecosystem is small. Its modest DeFi sector holds $80 million in total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama. XRPL’s tokens have a combined market cap of $468 million, according to Xrpl.to. Most of them are DEX tokens (SOLO) and memes (XRPM), as well as wrapped BTC and stablecoins.So far, XRPL’s Web3 sector remains niche and trails true smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana.Related: SEC delays decision on XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin ETFsCrypto pundits split hairs on XRP’s role in a strategic reserveRipple Labs representatives have long advocated for equal treatment of cryptocurrencies, with CEO Brad Garlinghouse reiterating this on Jan. 27. Garlinghouse said, “We live in a multichain world, and I’ve advocated for a level-playing field instead of one token versus another. If a government digital asset reserve is created—I believe it should be representative of the industry, not just one token (whether it be BTC, XRP or anything else).”However, not all cryptocurrencies serve the same purpose. Bitcoin’s primary role is to be a “geopolitically neutral asset like gold,” in the words of crypto analyst Willy Woo. XRP’s purpose remains less clear, but few in the crypto space would argue that it could qualify as independent money. This is primarily due to one of Ripple’s most uncomfortable aspects—its permissioned nature. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, Ripple does not rely on miners or staked tokens to secure the network. Instead, it uses a Unique Node List—a group of trusted validators responsible for approving transactions. While this optimizes speed and efficiency, it raises concerns about censorship, corruption, and security risks.Bitcoin proponent and co-founder of Casa Jameson Lopp didn’t hold back when discussing XRP’s potential:“There’s Bitcoin, then there’s Crypto, then there’s Ripple. Ripple has attacked Bitcoin at a level rivaled only by BSV’s lawsuits. Ripple explicitly wants to power CBDCs. They have always been focused on servicing banks. Few projects are as antithetical to Bitcoin.”There’s no love lost between Bitcoiners and Ripple supporters, especially after Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen partnered with Greenpeace to fund an anti-Bitcoin campaign. However, Lopp’s comparison to CBDCs holds some weight, given XRPL’s permissioned nature. It reflects a common view in the crypto community that XRP functions more like a banking tool than a truly independent cryptocurrency.While the XRPL blockchain sees widespread use in banking, XRP’s utility remains a point of concern. It is underscored by the fact that approximately 55% of the 100 billion pre-mined coins are still held by Ripple Labs. This concentration raises concerns about potential market manipulation and the coin’s long-term stability. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
New BITCOIN Act would allow US reserve to exceed 1M: Law Decoded
The newly reintroduced Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act of 2025 by Senator Cynthia Lummis would allow the United States to potentially hold over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) in its crypto reserves. The bill directs the government to buy 200,000 BTC annually over five years, to be paid for with existing funds within the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. If signed into law, the act would allow the US to hold more than 1 million BTC as long as the assets are acquired through lawful means other than direct purchases, including criminal or civil forfeitures, gifts, or transfers from federal agencies. Continue readingDemocratic lawmaker urges Treasury to cease Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plansUS Representative Gerald Connolly, a Democrat from Michigan, called on the Treasury to cease its efforts to create a crypto reserve in the United States. The lawmaker said there were conflicts of interest with US President Donald Trump and argued that the reserve would not benefit Americans.Connolly criticized the reserve in a letter addressed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, arguing that there’s no “discernible benefit” to Americans and that the move would instead make Trump and his donors richer. Continue readingArgentine lawyer requests Interpol red notice for LIBRA creator: ReportArgentine lawyer Gregorio Dalbon is seeking an Interpol Red Notice for Hayden Davis, the co-creator of the LIBRA token, which caused a political scandal in Argentina. Dalbon submitted a request, seeking the Red Notice, to prosecutor Eduardo Taiano and judge María Servini, who are investigating the involvement of President Javier Milei in the memecoin project. In a filing, the lawyer said there’s a procedural risk if Davis remains free. The lawyer argued that Davis could have access to funds that might allow him to go into hiding or flee to the US. Continue readingAmerica must back pro-stablecoin laws, reject CBDCs — US Rep. EmmerIn a House Financial Services Committee hearing, US Representative Tom Emmer said that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) threaten American values. The lawmaker called on Congress to pass his CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act to block future administrations from launching a CBDC without congressional approval. Emmer said at the hearing that CBDC technology is “inherently un-American,” adding that allowing unelected bureaucrats to issue a CBDC could “upend the American way of life.”Continue readingTexas lawmaker seeks to cap state’s proposed BTC purchases at $250 millionRon Reynolds, a Democratic state representative in Texas, has proposed a cap for the state’s investment in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. The lawmaker proposed in a bill that the state’s comptroller should not be allowed to invest more than $250 million in crypto. The bill also directs Texas municipalities or counties to not invest more than $10 million in crypto. The proposed bill follows the Texas Senate’s approval of legislation establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state.Continue reading
Polymarket bettors say there’s a 100% chance the Fed ends QT before May
Betters on Polymarket believe it’s now a certainty that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its quantitative tightening (QT) program by May of this year, a move many analysts say could trigger the next leg of the crypto bull market. By March 14, Polymarket’s betting odds that the Fed would end QT by April 30 was 100%, where it remains unchanged at the time of writing.The wager, titled “Will Fed end QT before May?,” has more than $6.2 million in cumulative trading volume.Polymarket users have assigned a 100% probability that the Fed will end quantitative tightening in the coming months. Source: PolymarketPolymarket is a crypto-based prediction market that lets betters wager on real-world events. It rose to prominence during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, where it accurately predicted the ascent of Donald Trump.Quantitative tightening is a monetary policy tool used by the Fed to draw money out of the economy by letting the bonds on its balance sheet mature. It’s the opposite of quantitative easing or the balance sheet expansion that the central bank embarked on following the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed’s current QT regime has been ongoing since June 2022 as a complement to other inflation-reducing policies. In addition to raising short-term interest rates, the Fed uses QT to raise long-term rates and drain excess liquidity from the market. Although the start of QT didn’t prevent stocks and crypto prices from rallying — these markets are coming off back-to-back years of impressive growth — it has become a bottleneck due to the recent macroeconomic shocks stemming from the Trump administration.This was predicted in 2022 by Cambridge Associates senior investment director TJ Scavone, who said the negative side effects of QT would be felt once “something breaks”: “With QT just now ramping up, the risk it poses to financial markets appears low. Yet, adding QT to what is an already difficult and volatile market environment may worsen market conditions, increasing the risk that “something breaks” from overtightening.”Related: Polymarket bets on Fort Knox audit as reserve debate heats upQT and cryptoCrypto’s strong correlation with traditional markets exposed the asset class to extreme volatility in February. By March, the S&P 500 Index was officially in correction territory — and Bitcoin (BTC) was down roughly 30% from its January peak. The growing belief that the Fed is ready to wind down QT is seen by many as a bullish catalyst for crypto, as more liquidity will eventually trickle down into risk assets. Combined with rate cuts in the second half of the year, there may be enough policy drivers to reverse the crypto market’s multimonth downtrend.This general playbook is supported by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who believes the end of QT will be followed by a broad market rally. Source: Benjamin CowenAlthough the Fed hasn’t confirmed whether it will wind down its QT program, the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that some officials were concerned about balance sheet reductions impacting the government’s debt ceiling debate:“Regarding the potential for significant swings in reserves over coming months related to debt ceiling dynamics, various participants noted that it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until the resolution of this event.”Important policy changes at the Fed are coinciding with a broad pickup in the business cycle. As Cointelegraph recently reported, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been in expansion mode for two consecutive months following more than two years of contraction. During the last two crypto market cycles, Bitcoin’s peak coincided with the top of the business cycle, as expressed by the manufacturing PMI.Bitcoin’s price exhibits a strong correlation with the ISM manufacturing PMI. Source: TomasOnMarketsX Hall of Flame: DeFi will rise again after memecoins die down: Sasha Ivanov
Price analysis 3/17: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, PI
Bitcoin (BTC) has largely stayed above $80,000 since March 11, indicating that the bulls are not waiting for a deeper correction to buy. However, the failure to propel the price above $86,000 shows that the bears have not given up and continue to sell on rallies.CoinShares’ weekly report shows that cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) witnessed $1.7 billion in outflows last week. That takes the total five-week outflows to $6.4 billion. Additionally, the streak of outflows has reached 17 days, marking the longest negative streak since CoinShares records began in 2015.Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360It’s not all gloom and doom for the long-term investors. CryptoQuant contributor ShayanBTC said that investors who purchased Bitcoin between three and six months ago are showing an accumulation pattern. Historically, similar behavior has “played a crucial role in forming market bottoms and igniting new uptrends.” Will buyers succeed in catapulting Bitcoin above the overhead resistance levels? How are the altcoins placed? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.S&P 500 Index price analysisThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a strong corrective phase. The fall to 5,504 on March 13 sent the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold territory, signaling a possible relief rally in the near term.SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe bears will try to halt the recovery in the 5,670 to 5,773 resistance zone. If they succeed, it will signal that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That heightens the risk of a fall to 5,400. The bulls are expected to defend the 5,400 level with all their might because a drop below it may sink the index to 5,100.On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (5,780) will signal strength. The index may then climb to the 50-day simple moving average (5,938).US Dollar Index price analysisThe weak rebound off the 103.37 support in the US Dollar Index (DXY) suggests that the bears have kept up the pressure.DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSellers are trying to sink the index below 103.37. If they can pull it off, the decline could extend to 102 and thereafter to 101.Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above 104, it will signal that buyers are trying to make a comeback. The index could rise to the 20-day EMA (105), which is likely to attract sellers. If buyers do not cede much ground to the bears, the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA increase. The index could then rally to the 50-day SMA (107).Bitcoin price analysisBitcoin has been trying to form a higher low in the near term, building strength to cross above the 200-day SMA ($84,112).BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum is weakening. If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($85,808), the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($92,621).Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply from the 200-day SMA, it will indicate that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance. The pair may slide to $80,000 and next to $76,606.Ether price analysisEther (ETH) has been trading between $1,963 and $1,821, signaling a lack of aggressive buying at current levels.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf the price dips below the $1,821 to $1,754 support zone, it will indicate the resumption of the downtrend. The ETH/USDT pair may then nosedive to the next significant support at $1,550.This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($2,107). The pair could ascend to the 50-day SMA ($2,514), where the bears are likely to sell aggressively. However, if the bulls pierce the 50-day SMA resistance, the pair may rally to $2,857.XRP price analysisXRP (XRP) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($2.51) on March 15, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($2.34) has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The XRP/USDT pair could remain stuck between the 50-day SMA and $2 for some time.If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 50-day SMA, it will clear the path for a potential rally to $3. Instead, a break and close below $2 will complete a head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair may then tumble to $1.28.BNB price analysisBNB (BNB) turned up from the 20-day EMA ($598) and rose above the 50-day SMA ($620), indicating that the correction may be ending.BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe 20-day EMA has started to turn up, and the RSI has risen into positive territory, indicating a slight advantage to the bulls. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $686 and eventually to $745.The 20-day EMA is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below the 20-day EMA will signal that the bears have seized control. The pair may then descend to the strong support at $500.Solana price analysisSolana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($139) on March 16, signaling that bears are aggressively defending the level.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe SOL/USDT pair could drop to $120 and then to $110, where buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off the support zone, the bulls will again try to drive the SOL/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could climb to $180.This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below the support zone. That may start a downward move to $100 and subsequently to $80.Related: Ethereum onchain data suggests $2K ETH price is out of reach for nowDogecoin price analysisDogecoin (DOGE) has been gradually rising toward the 20-day EMA ($0.19), which is an important near-term resistance to watch out for.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it suggests that bears are selling on every minor rally. That heightens the risk of a break below the $0.14 support. If that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair could plunge to $0.10.Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA indicates that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.23) and later to $0.29. A break and close above $0.29 suggests that buyers are back in the driver’s seat.Cardano price analysisCardano (ADA) has been trading below the 20-day EMA ($0.76) since March 8, but the bears have failed to sink the pair to the uptrend line. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBuyers will have to drive the price above the moving averages to start a sustained recovery. The ADA/USDT pair could climb to $1.02, where the bears may again mount a strong defense.Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears remain in control. That increases the likelihood of a drop below the uptrend line. If that happens, the pair may plummet to $0.50.Pi price analysisPi (PI) has been gradually sliding toward the $1.23 support, which is likely to attract buying from the bulls.PI/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf the price rebounds off $1.23 with strength, the PI/USDT pair could attempt a move back toward $1.80. Sellers are expected to pose a strong challenge at $1.80, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could rally to $2 and thereafter to $2.35.Contrarily, if the price turns down from $1.80, it will signal a range formation. The pair may swing between $1.23 and $1.80 for a while. Sellers will strengthen their position on a break below $1.23. The pair may then collapse to the 78.6% retracement level of $0.72.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
BTC dominance steadily rising since 2023, is altseason now a relic?
Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, a measure of Bitcoin’s overall share of the crypto market, has been steadily rising since 2023 amid a torrent of new cryptocurrency coins and tokens.The current BTC market dominance is roughly 61.6%, down from the local peak of 64.3% recorded on Feb. 3.BTC market dominance broke back above 60% on Feb. 2 amid a general market downturn over fears of a prolonged trade war between the United States and its trading partners.Macroeconomic uncertainty typically takes a toll on risk-on assets, and the recent market downturn hit altcoins harder than BTC due to their lower liquidity and higher-risk profiles.Bitcoin market dominance has been rising since 2023. Source: TradingViewThe current market cycle also features Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which silo liquidity into these financial instruments — preventing capital rotation into altcoins, which crypto traders and investors have become accustomed to.Previous cycles were characterized by investors rotating profits from less risky assets such as BTC into progressively higher-risk investments, starting with high market cap altcoins and eventually working their way into smaller cap tokens.The liquidity siloed in traditional investment vehicles coupled with the proliferation of new coins and tokens competing for limited investor attention and capital has led some analysts to suggest that altcoin season is now a thing of the past and will not be a feature of the current or future market cycles.Related: Bitcoin poised to reclaim $90,000, according to derivatives metricsToo many tokens have saturated the marketThe total number of cryptocurrency tokens and coins listed on CoinMarketCap on Feb. 8 was below 11 million unique assets, as of March 15 the number of digital assets listed on the website has surged to over 12.7 million.Tens of millions of unique digital assets are now floating around the markets. Source: DuneOver 600,000 tokens were launched in January 2025 alone. The vast majority of these assets were memecoins created on fair launch platforms and low-cap altcoins.According to market analyst Jesse Myers, when these coins fail, they do not go to $0. Instead, they linger around market capitalizations of $10,000 to $100,000 — permanently trapping capital inside illiquid pools.The proliferation of new tokens and digital assets prompted Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to reevaluate the exchange’s token listing process to meet consumer demand.Magazine: DeFi will rise again after memecoins die down: Sasha Ivanov, X Hall of FlameThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.