Institutional demand could push BTC past $200k in 2025 — Analysts
Demand from financial institutions could push the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as high as $200,000 per coin in 2025, according to two research reports reviewed by Cointelegraph. Analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI said institutional Bitcoin demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and traders seeking to hedge against macroeconomic risk could cause Bitcoin’s price to more than double this year.“While the forecast is optimistic, it’s also conditional. Any black swan — from a major regulatory clampdown to a geopolitical event — can disrupt trajectories,” Fei Chen, Intellectia AI’s chief investment strategist, told Cointelegraph. Bitcoin ETF inflows since January 2024. Source: CoinGlassRelated: US Bitcoin ETFs clock biggest inflows since January as crypto markets gainBullish sentimentThe reports come as Bitcoin broke past $90,000 on April 22 for the first time in six weeks, reflecting traders embracing Bitcoin and gold as potential hedges against looming trade wars and geopolitical volatility. The price action followed the biggest daily net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since January. The US’s 11 spot BTC funds collectively pulled more than $380 million in net inflows on April 21, according to CoinGlass data.Intellectia AI said institutional demand drivers — including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken — could continue to propel positive price action. Corporate Bitcoin treasuries already hold nearly $65 billion worth of BTC, according to data from Bitcointreasuries.net.Hedgers still prefer gold over Bitcoin. Source: Binance ResearchHedging or speculation?Gold and BTC “appear to have become more important components of investors’ portfolios structurally” as they increasingly seek to hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation, investment bank JP Morgan said in a January research note. However, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold — historically a preferred hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty — has been low since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping import tariffs on April 2, Binance Research said on April 7. In fact, Bitcoin has been more closely correlated with equities, Binance said. Paradoxically, sustained ETF inflows could further diminish Bitcoin’s status as a macroeconomic hedge, eroding one of its most attractive traits for institutions, Spencer Yang, a core contributor for crypto infrastructure project Fractal Bitcoin, told Cointelegraph. “Despite growing institutional interest, Bitcoin’s long-term resilience won’t be secured by balance sheet optics alone — it depends on real usage,” Yang said. “That means people actually transacting, building, and experimenting on the network — not just holding BTC as a speculative asset.”Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again
Bitcoin price prepares for ‘70% to 80%’ gain as onchain metrics and spot BTC ETF inflows spike
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in a persistent downtrend since January, but the April 22 surge past $91,000 marks its first higher high breakout of the year and the potential start of a new longer-term uptrend.Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe higher high pattern occurred after BTC moved above its previous lower high and resistance at $88,500, but the real factor that will keep price afloat is buying volumes in various cohorts of the Bitcoin market.The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $381 million on April 21, levels not seen since Jan. 30.Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValueRising spot BTC inflows, along with Bitcoin’s increase in price, point to a possible resurgence in institutional demand for Bitcoin, and the change in trend from the ETFs could offset the selling pressure that has put a cap on BTC price for months.However, retail investor demand (buy volumes between $0 and 10,000) remained below 0%, which suggested that low volume buyers are not back yet. Over the past year, these investors have lagged behind BTC price breakouts, but they strengthen price momentum once the investor volume turns positive.Bitcoin retail investor demand by 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuantCryptoQuant community manager Maartunn highlighted that the present rally is leverage-driven rather than spot volume-driven. Glassnode data also pointed out that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased by $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.For Bitcoin price to sustain a strong position above $90,000, the current discrepancy between futures traders and retail traders needs to decrease.Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street’s $13T wipeoutBitcoin could gain “70% to 80% from here”From a longer-term perspective, DYOR crypto founder Hitesh Malviya said BTC could gain 70% to 80% if it maintains a MVRV ratio of 2 for the next six weeks.The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key onchain metric, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap—the value of coins at their last transaction price. Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 often signals overvaluation and market tops, while values near 2 have preceded strong price rallies.Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuantBitcoin’s MVRV score remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, coinciding with its all-time high. Recently, the metric fell below 2 during the market correction, but it is now attempting to reclaim this key level.Related: Bitcoin traders turn to $93K yearly open as BTC price hits 6-week highThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Lawyer hopes Hashflare co-founders can 'self-deport' after sentencing
A lawyer representing one of the co-founders of crypto mining service Hashflare has addressed how their criminal case may move forward after the pair received “self-deport” letters from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS).In an April 11 filing in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington, Hashflare co-founders Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin reported they had received a DHS letter directing them to “leave the United States” as part of a push by the Trump administration to effect mass deportations. The government letter contradicted orders from Judge Robert Lasnik, who restricted travel for Potapenko and Turogin as part of their bail conditions.In February, the Estonian nationals pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud as part of a deal with authorities. Between 2015 and 2019, the two were responsible for defrauding Hashflare users out of more than $550 million. They also raised $25 million from investors in 2017, claiming they would establish a digital bank called Polybius. The firm was never created.Indicted in October 2022, Potapenko and Turogin were arrested and held in Estonia before their extradition to the US in May 2024. Both have been free on bail since July 2024 but could face up to 20 years in prison each at sentencing.Ordered to leave, forced to stay“[Potapenko and Turogin each] got letters from DHS to their personal email saying ‘deport immediately,’” Reed Smith partner and defense counsel Mark Bini told Cointelegraph. “It caused some angst because [our client and his co-defendant], their conditions of release include that they comply with the law. And here you have this letter saying if you stay in the country, you’re breaking the law. And of course, their bail conditions say they can’t leave the Seattle area.” Related: Russian Gotbit founder strikes $23M plea deal with US prosecutorsThe DHS letters ordering certain people to “depart the United States immediately” were reportedly sent to thousands of immigrants who had used the government’s CBP One app to enter the country legally. However, some citizens reported receiving the same letter in US President Donald Trump’s attempts to effect deportations through his office. Bini initially thought it was a possibility that the US government was suggesting that Potapenko or Turogin “self-deport” to Estonia after the Justice Department issued a memo hinting it would change its enforcement policy in criminal cases involving crypto. The Hashflare co-founders had been expected to remain in the jurisdiction until at least Aug. 14 for their sentencing hearings.“I have not encountered this situation before, where you have essentially two folks in the federal government telling you conflicting things,” said Bini. The attorney added that Potapenko or Turogin now carried letters with them at all times that stated DHS had deferred action on their “self-deportation” for one year in the event that authorities mistakenly tried to detain them and remove them from the country. Though the pair could still receive prison time, Potapenko, Turogin and Hashflare reported returning $400 million in crypto payments to users and “agreed to forfeit their interests in assets that the government froze in 2022.”“We’re going to try and convince the judge to frankly side with DHS and let them self-deport to Estonia to their families because we believe that there was no actual financial harm to the customers of Hashflare,” said Bini. “It’s a weird [case] because for our clients, we want to be deported. Our clients are Estonian. Their families are Estonian.” Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple and industry with no crypto legal precedent set
Crocodilus malware explained: how it targets android crypto wallets
What is Crocodilus malware? Crocodilus is the latest in a string of Android crypto malware built to steal your cryptoassets.Crocodilus is a sophisticated piece of malware that steals digital assets from Android devices. Named after crocodile references scattered throughout its code, Crocodilus targets Android 13 devices or later. The Android wallet malware utilizes overlays, remote access and social engineering to take over your device and drain your crypto wallet. Fraud prevention firm Threat Fabric discovered Crocodilus malware in March 2025 and published detailed research on the new virus. As of April 2025, users in Spain and Turkey are the primary targets. Threat Fabric predicts Crocodilus will expand globally in the coming months. How Crocodilus infects Android devices Crocodilus’ primary method of infection is still unknown, but it likely follows a path similar to other malware.What sets Crocodilus apart from typical crypto wallet malware is how deeply it integrates with your device. It does more than just trick you via social engineering. It takes complete control of your Android.While the leading cause of infection is unknown, malware like this often appears in a few ways:Fake apps: Crocodilus may disguise itself as a legitimate cryptocurrency-related app on the Google Play Store or on third-party app-hosting sites. Threat Fabric says the malware can bypass the Google Play Store’s safety scanners.SMS promotions: SMS scams are increasingly common. If you receive a random text with a suspicious link, don’t click on it. It may redirect you to a page that downloads malware.Malicious advertising: Infected ads run rampant on adult or software piracy websites. Each ad is strategically placed to make you accidentally tap, and it only takes one tap to download malware. Phishing attempts: Some malware campaigns send malicious phishing emails that impersonate cryptocurrency exchanges. Double-check the sender’s e-mail address to verify its legitimacy.Once Crocodilus infects your device, the malware will request accessibility service permissions. Accepting these permissions connects Crocodilus to its command-and-control (C2) server, where attackers can display screen overlays, track keystrokes or activate remote access to control your device.However, the malware’s main identifying trait is its wallet backup trick. If you log into your cryptocurrency wallet app using a password or PIN, Crocodilus displays a fake overlay. It reads: “Back up your wallet key in the settings within 12 hours. Otherwise, the app will be reset, and you may lose access to your wallet.” If you click “continue,” Crocodilus prompts you to type in your seed phrase. The malware tracks your inputs via its keylogger. Then, the attackers have everything they need to steal your assets.Crocodilus’ fake overlay imitates legitimate wallet software. Its “continue” button is easy to press without thinking, but know that a recognizable wallet app would never urge you to back up your wallet in this way. If you see this overlay, uninstall the app and consider a clean install of your device.Unfortunately, keylogging is just the start. Crocodilus circumvents two-factor authentication (2FA) processes via its screen recorder, capturing verification codes from apps like Google Authenticator and sending them to C2. Worst of all, Crocodilus displays a black overlay and mutes your device’s audio to cover up its activities. It pretends your phone is locked while silently stealing your assets in the background. The malware can conduct 45 commands in total, including:SMS takeover: Crocodilus can retrieve your text messages, text your contacts list, and even make itself your default SMS app.Remote access: The malware takes complete control of your device, allowing it to open apps, activate your camera or start your screen recorder.Modify text: While Crocodilus tricks you into inputting your wallet information, it can alter or generate text to help C2 access your private apps using data it finds on your device.Did you know? Stealthy malware threats to crypto wallets are common. Zero-click attacks — malware that infects your device without any input from you — are another form of crypto malware in 2025. What if you’ve fallen victim to a Crocodilus attack? Falling victim to Crocodilus requires immediate action.If you’ve fallen victim to the Android Trojan Crocodilus, immediately follow these crypto wallet protection tips:Isolate your device: Disconnect your device from Wi-Fi or data and turn it off. Remove the battery if possible.Recover your assets: You should have your wallet’s seed phrase stored in a safe, physical location. Use it to recover your wallet to an uncompromised device.Get rid of your infected device: Unfortunately, using your infected device is a massive risk. Factory resetting it might not get rid of the malware. Moving to another device is your safest option.Report the threat: If you downloaded a malicious app, such as one from the Google Play Store, report it to the relevant parties.Did you know? If you lose your cryptoassets, there’s no getting them back. Some may consider this one of the downsides to decentralization — a lack of a central authority to monitor and insure theft. How to check for a Crocodilus attack Regular checks go a long way toward protecting your cryptocurrencies. Learn how to detect crypto malware.While Crocodilus manipulates your device in secret, there are some telltale signs of infection to watch out for. Here’s how to protect crypto on Android if you’re suspicious of a Crocodilus attack:Suspicious app activity: Check your device activity tracker. An unaccounted-for uptick in cryptocurrency or banking apps may be cause for concern.Check app permissions: Regularly review the app permissions you’ve allowed, especially those that request accessibility permissions. Increased battery drain: A small but significant sign of infection is increased battery drain. If your battery drains faster than usual, your phone may be running malware in the background. Data usage spikes: Crocodilus continually transmits data to its C2 server. Monitor your data usage and be aware of any sudden increases. This is one of the most apparent signs your wallet app is compromised. How to prevent a Crocodilus hack Prevention is the best form of protection.According to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis, an estimated $51 billion in cryptocurrencies was stolen via crypto hacks in 2024. The group expects this number to increase in 2025 and beyond. Cybersecurity is more important than ever as we continue to move toward decentralized digital finance.While it’s impossible to remain 100% safe from cyberthreats, consider adopting the following behaviors to protect yourself. Crypto wallet security in 2025 is more important than ever:Browse safely: Avoid suspicious websites that exist to trap users into downloading Crocodilus and other malware stealing crypto keys.Use a hardware wallet: As of April 2025, Crocodilus targets Android devices, specifically. Keeping your cryptocurrencies in a hardware wallet limits the malware’s reach. Triple-check app downloads: Don’t side-load applications from unsafe websites. Make sure to triple-check apps on the Google Play Store and only download those you’re sure are official.Check official sources: Follow reputable cybersecurity websites, subreddits and other spaces to stay current on Crocodilus protection methods.Finally, be wary of unexpected backup prompts and monitor app behavior for suspicious activity.
Bitcoin traders turn to $93K yearly open as BTC price hits 6-week high
Bitcoin (BTC) hit six-week highs on April 22 as US trade war tensions emboldened crypto bulls.BTC/USD 1-hour chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin lines up resistance flips around $90,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD above $91,000 after the Wall Street open — its highest since March 7.Bitcoin and gold benefited from increasing market nerves over how China, Japan and others would respond to US trade tariffs.XAU/USD set fresh all-time highs on the day, while BTC/USD faced a key bull market support trend line that has been acting as resistance since early March.BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewFor traders, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $88,370 thus became the level to flip back to support on daily timeframes.“Closing in on the big $90K-$91K horizontal area which acted as the previous range low,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in part of ongoing analysis on X. An accompanying chart showed the need to crack the area around $93,000 — Bitcoin’s yearly open — to confirm the moving average reclaim. BTC/USDT perpetual contract 1-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XContinuing, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, had similar views.“If history has taught us anything, it’s important to watch for fake outs and confirmations,” he noted. “IMO, confirmation of the trend reversal will come when BTC reclaims the Yearly Open. That move will put price on a trajectory to unwind the key moving averages and deliver a series of Golden Crosses in the days and weeks ahead.”BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/XBTC price rebound skepticism remainsFellow trader Roman, meanwhile, was among those staying cautious on the validity of a short-term BTC price swing.Related: US dollar goes ‘no-bid’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week“Price now retesting prior support as resistance for now. A breakout above 93k would be great for bulls, however, I’m unsure if we get it,” he told X followers about the weekly chart. “Wait for weekly close before you make assumptions or get excited. We’ve seen so many fakeouts before. 5 days left!”BTC/USD 1-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAlso unsure that the move would last was popular analytics resource Ecoinometrics, which acknowledged that Bitcoin ultimately lost out when the Nasdaq 100 index was below its own 200-day SMA.“Bitcoin is climbing. The NASDAQ is sliding. That kind of divergence doesn’t usually last,” it summarized on the day. “Historically, when the NASDAQ’s 200-day moving average trend is down, Bitcoin runs into macro headwinds.”BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq 100 chart. Source: Ecoinometrics/XThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street's $13T wipeout
Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.Bitcoin’s breaks below key gold supportAs of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewHistorically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).For instance, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.That is in contrast to the ongoing decoupling narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.BTC vs gold breakdowns are historically bearishWeakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe pattern also repeated in earlier cycles, namely the 2019-2020 and 2018-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIf the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffsAs of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewHistorically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USDWeakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIf the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffsAs of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewHistorically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USDWeakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIf the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffsAs of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewHistorically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USDWeakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIf the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffsAs of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewHistorically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USDWeakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIf the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffsAs of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewHistorically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USDWeakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIf the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Cheaper, faster, riskier — The rise of DeepSeek and its security concerns
Opinion by: Ahmad Shadid, CEO of O.xyzThe DeepSeek saga made it abundantly clear that cheaper AI models can offer breakthrough advantages. DeepSeek challenges traditional investments with low-cost, high-performance technology. Yet its rise brings serious risks. The most concerning aspects of such models are data privacy and security issues. The fact that such advanced models can be developed at a fraction of the standard expense does boost innovation and investment prospects, but at what cost?Cost-cutting AI models can create dangerous vulnerabilities, even if they democratize AI development. A recent Cisco study found that DeepSeek’s R1 model had a 100% attack success rate. In simple terms, the model failed to block a single harmful prompt. Why does security take a backseat during such innovation?DeepSeek sparks AI frenzy in China DeepSeek developers claim that its R1 chatbot costs a fraction of what rivals like OpenAI spend. Industry voices labeled this as the biggest AI chatbot story since November 2022. Microsoft and Amazon Web Services moved quickly to support DeepSeek. This progress comes with risks. DeepSeek’s AI model stores user data on servers in China. Chinese law forces companies to share data with state agencies. This policy may allow the Chinese government to harvest US consumer data.OpenAI raised concerns over DeepSeek in a letter to the US government. The 15-page letter highlighted that DeepSeek’s advancements, particularly with its R1 model, are narrowing the US lead in AI. From a financial viewpoint, DeepSeek’s announcement triggered a global panic. Tech stocks dropped sharply. Nvidia, a leader in chip manufacturing, lost nearly 17% in a single day. Investors reevaluated the cost and competitiveness of the AI industry. The loss in market value reached hundreds of billions of dollars. As risk sentiment spread, the shockwaves moved quickly into other sectors like crypto. The fast and hasty reaction itself is a critical concern. If AI developers want to cash in on this low-cost development trend, we might see more models like DeepSeek emerge that sacrifice user privacy for the sake of rapid deployment. The spillover effects on cryptoThe DeepSeek saga revealed a more concerning trend for the crypto industry. Cryptocurrencies have grown closely linked with tech stocks. When DeepSeek hit the headlines, the crypto market was not spared. Bitcoin (BTC), the most prominent digital asset, fell below $100,000. Analysts also noted that Bitcoin’s six‐month rolling correlation with the Nasdaq Composite rose to about 0.5. This indicates that risk assets like Bitcoin follow suit when tech stocks falter. So, future developments that damage the mainstream tech market can also take a toll on the crypto market. Critics, including Jean Rausis of Smardex, maintain that DeepSeek’s technology “has nothing to do with Bitcoin” on a fundamental level. The prevailing market fear, however, meant that any shock in the tech sector transmitted quickly to the crypto market. Many Bitcoin miners had moved into AI data center operations and saw shares decline by 13%–18%. This drop added to the overall uncertainty in the market.Another concern is the increasing avenue of scams. Several DeepSeek-themed or even fake AI-themed tokens emerged and captured investors’ attention. New investors would know very little about trading on decentralized exchanges and identifying pump-and-dump or rug-pull schemes. Security risks that can’t be ignored Security researchers pointed out that the DeepSeek R1 iOS app uses outdated encryption. Such flaws expose users to the risk of cyberattacks and data breaches. This cost-cutting can leave the system vulnerable to manipulation and misuse. The possibility that a low-cost AI model might serve foreign state interests casts a long shadow over its adoption.Recent: OpenAI expects to 3X revenue in 2025 but Chinese AI firms are heating upSecurity risks of this nature require urgent attention from companies and regulators alike. US officials worry about the storage of sensitive consumer data on Chinese servers. Regulators may impose stricter data protection standards to safeguard market confidence. Industry experts also debate the long-term influence of DeepSeek. Some argue that its cost-efficiency could push the entire AI sector forward. They see lower training costs as an opportunity to drive innovation and increase competition. This could lead to broader adoption of AI tools and lower costs. Yet the security shortcomings remain unresolved. The risk that cheaper models expose users to data breaches and cyberattacks overshadows potential benefits.What’s ahead? As regulators and industry leaders step in to examine these issues, the future of AI depends on how well we manage these security risks. We must demand higher standards for data protection, even as we push for innovation. DeepSeek’s case reminds us that breakthroughs in efficiency must come with strong safeguards. The choices made now will shape the future of AI and consumer data protection. The debate over cheaper, faster but riskier technology is far from over and will continue to influence the tech and crypto space for years to come.Opinion by: Ahmad Shadid, CEO of O.xyz. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Crypto crime goes industrial as gangs launch coins, launder billions — UN
Organized crime groups across Southeast Asia have scaled their operations by exploiting cryptocurrency and launching their own coins, exchanges and blockchain networks to launder billions of dollars, according to a new report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).The report said criminal syndicates are no longer just using existing crypto infrastructure. Instead, they are actively building tailored financial ecosystems to evade detection.One example cited in the report is the Chinese-language ecosystem and marketplace known as Huione Guarantee, now rebranded as Haowang, which has processed more than $24 billion in crypto linked to fraud over the past four years.Value of crypto funds received by Huione Guarantee continues to rise. Source: UNODCHeadquartered in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, the platform has grown to more than 970,000 users and thousands of interconnected vendors.“Concerningly, Huione has recently launched a range of its own cryptocurrency-related products, including a cryptocurrency exchange and trading application, online gambling platform, blockchain network, and US dollar-backed stablecoin designed to circumvent government controls,” the report stated.Related: CFTC partners up to warn on crypto pig butchering scamsSoutheast Asia emerges as crypto crime hubThe UNODC warned that scam centers in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos have industrialized cybercrime, combining blockchain, artificial intelligence and stablecoins to fuel operations.These centers run complex fraud schemes, including phishing, investment scams and “pig butchering,” generating billions annually, per the report. Some of the largest pig butchering syndicates are reportedly clustered around the region, according to Cointelegraph Magazine.Over the past year, several raids have led to the arrests of hundreds of people, including Chinese, Filipino, Indonesian, Malaysian, Thai and Vietnamese nationals found at suspected cyber-enabled fraud operations.In October 2024, Hong Kong police busted a scam center and arrested 27 people they accused of using AI deepfakes to carry out a crypto romance investment scam that defrauded victims of more than $46 million.Likewise, in December 2024, Nigeria’s anti-corruption agency arrested 792 people in a raid on a building in the country’s largest city that it claimed was a hub for a massive crypto romance scam operation.Locations of reported scam centers in Mekong. Source: UNODCRelated: Coinbase users hit by $46M in suspected phishing scamsCustom stablecoins and exchanges evade oversightThe UN report highlights that syndicates are issuing their own stablecoins and creating private exchanges to bypass global financial regulations, which allows criminals to move funds seamlessly across borders without relying on mainstream platforms subject to Anti-Money Laundering controls.Huione Guarantee has launched a suite of crypto-related products, which also includes a cryptocurrency exchange, a blockchain network (Xone Chain) and an online gambling platform. The group also announced the launch of a Huione Visa card in February 2025.While Southeast Asia remains the epicenter, UNODC noted that these crypto-fueled operations are expanding into Africa, South America and the Pacific.“The growing global impact of expanding Asian money laundering and underground banking networks cannot be understated,” the report stated, urging governments to close loopholes.Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered