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Bitcoin price volatility ramps up around FOMC days — Will this time be different?

At the start of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) price succumbed to pressure from sellers, declining from $84,500 on March 17, to $81,300 at the time of writing. This downward movement was most likely a sell-off related to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) two-day meeting, which takes place on March 18-19.Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings tend to act as market resets. Each time the FOMC meets to deliberate on US monetary policy, crypto markets brace for impact. Historically, traders de-risk and reduce leverage ahead of the announcement, and after the meeting and press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell the markets can be equally reactive.The press release of the current FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, March 19, at 2:30 pm ET, and it could trigger major movements in the Bitcoin market. Analyzing market behavior leading to its release could offer clues about Bitcoin’s next move. To traders, FOMC means volatilityTraders are closely monitoring the FOMC minutes for any shifts in the Fed’s stance on inflation and interest rates. After the FOMC announcement, Bitcoin price tends to react sharply. Since the beginning of 2024, BTC prices mostly declined after the FOMC decided to maintain rates, as can be seen on the chart below. The notable exception was the pre-halving rally of February 2024, which also coincided with the launch of the first spot BTC ETFs. When US interest rates were cut on September, 18, 2024 and November 7, 2024, Bitcoin rallied. However, the third cut on December 18, 2024, did not yield the same result. The modest decrease by 25 basis points to the 4.50%–4.75% range marked the local Bitcoin price top at $108,000.BTC/USD 1-day chart with FOMC dates. Souce: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingViewMarkets deleverage before FOMC, except this timeA key indicator that provides insight into market sentiment is Bitcoin open interest—the total number of derivative contracts, mostly $1 perpetual futures, that have not been settled. Historically, Bitcoin open interest falls before FOMC meetings, showing that traders are reducing leverage and risk exposure, as per the graph based on CoinGlass data.Bitcoin futures open interest and FOMC dates. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, CoinGlassHowever, this month another pattern has emerged. Despite Bitcoin’s $12 billion open interest shakeout earlier this month, in the days preceding the FOMC there was no noticeable decrease in Bitcoin’s open interest. BTC price, however, declined, which is unusual and could indicate a strong directional bet.This could also be a sign that traders feel less anxiety about the Fed’s decision, possibly expecting a neutral outcome. Supporting this view, CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability that the Fed will maintain rates at 4.25%–4.50%.If the rates remain unchanged, it is possible that Bitcoin price will continue its current downtrend. This may be exactly what the HyperLiquid whale was hoping for when it opened a 40x leveraged short position worth over $500 million at its peak. However, this position is now closed.Related: Bitcoin stalls under $85K— Key BTC price levels to watch ahead of FOMCHow are the spot Bitcoin ETFs reacting?Unlike Bitcoin whales, investors in the spot Bitcoin ETFs have historically offloaded BTC holdings before FOMC meetings. Since the spot BTC ETFs launched in January 2024, most FOMC events have coincided with ETF outflows or, at best, modest inflows, according to CoinGlass data. The notable exception was the previous all-time high of January 2025, when even the spot Bitcoin ETF investors couldn’t resist the urge to buy.Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows and FOMC dates. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, CoinGlassOn March 17, the spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $275 million in net inflows, marking a shift from a month of outflows. This may signal a shift in investor sentiment and expectations regarding the Fed’s policy decisions.If spot ETF inflows are rising before the FOMC, investors might be anticipating a more dovish stance from the Fed, such as signaling future rate cuts or maintaining liquidity-friendly policies.Investors could also be loading up on Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty. This suggests that some institutional investors believe Bitcoin will perform well regardless of the Fed’s decision.Investors could also be anticipating a possible short squeeze. If traders were expecting Bitcoin to drop and positioned short, a sudden increase in ETF inflows could play a role in traders’ behaviors and trigger a short squeeze.Following the FOMC, BTC’s price action, along with onchain data and spot ETF flows will show whether the recent activity was part of a long-term accumulation trend or just speculative positioning. However, one thing that many traders agree on now is that BTC could experience a significant price movement after the FOMC announcement. As crypto trader Master of Crypto put it in a recent X post: “The FOMC is tomorrow, and a Big Move is expected.” Even without rate cuts, the chance of the Fed issuing dovish statements could lift markets, while the absence of them could drive prices lower.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price in ‘cursed’ downtrend which could continue well into 2025 — Analyst

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has ventured into oversold territory multiple times against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, but the altcoin has yet to show any signs of finding a price bottom. The trading situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and ETH’s market structure suggests that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this year.Ether’s repeat breakdowns point to more downsideThe relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce. However, historical patterns show that previous dips into oversold conditions have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Each instance has been followed by another leg lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingViewSince mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength.X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence—when the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows—on its weekly chart.ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CryptoNoctomETH ETF outflows and onchain data hint at further weaknessThe “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend stands out when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data.The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are down 2.35% in the same period to $35.74 billion.Source: Ted PillowsMeanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees—measured by daily median gas consumption on mainnet—were sitting around 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by nearly 50 times what they were just a year ago.Ethereum median gas fees vs. ETH price (in dollar terms). Source: Nansen“Despite the second rally of ETH price into 2024 year end, activity on mainnet as measured by gas consumption never fully recovered,” data analytics platform Nansen wrote in its latest report, adding: “This is downstream of a few things but much of the activity has shifted to Solana and L2s over 2024.”Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data. Notably, Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. In comparison, ETH’s trading activity remains mostly flat, according to onchain data platform Glassnode. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures volume. Source: GlassnodeThe ETH/BTC pair could drop another 15%ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.Related: Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4KA bear pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying the same rule on ETH/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingViewFurthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading far below these key levels, signaling a persistent bear market structure.Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Binance CEO reiterates denial of Trump family deal talks

Binance CEO Richard Teng has once again denied rumors that Binance.US, the US-based arm of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, is in talks with entities affiliated with US President Donald Trump. Teng made this statement during a panel at Blockworks’ 2025 Digital Asset Summit in New York on March 18.

This denial echoes the previous statements made by Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Trump himself, both of whom refuted the story last week. The Wall Street Journal had reported that Binance.US was discussing selling an equity interest to Trump-affiliated businesses, including a potential deal with World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s decentralized finance (DeFi) project.

During the summit, Teng reiterated that both World Liberty Financial and CZ had already denied the rumors on Twitter. He also clarified that Binance.US is legally and operationally separate from its larger parent company.

Teng also praised Trump for his pro-crypto policies, stating that Binance has benefited from the president’s stance on the industry, despite not directly operating in the US. He noted that 2020 was a landmark year for institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, and with Trump’s support, it will only continue to grow.

However, the potential deal with Trump’s family has raised concerns about conflicts of interest. The Wall Street Journal report mentioned that CZ, who previously served four months in prison in the US, has been pushing for a pardon from the Trump administration. It is unclear what form the Trump family’s stake in Binance would take, or if it would be contingent on a pardon.

Trump’s involvement in the cryptocurrency industry has also raised questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. His launch of a memecoin and ties to World Liberty Financial have been seen as a departure from the norms for US presidents.

In response to the report, CZ and Trump both denied any involvement in a potential deal. Trump also criticized the Wall Street Journal, stating that they are “owned by the polluted thinking of the European Union.”

As the cryptocurrency industry continues to gain mainstream attention and adoption, it is important for all players to maintain transparency and avoid any potential conflicts of interest.

Solana CME futures volumes reach $12.1M: Was the launch a dud, or is more to come?

Solana futures (SOL) on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) went live on March 17, with a trading volume of $12.1 million on day 1, which fell short compared to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s (ETH) CME futures debut. CME Crypto futures comparison by Vetle Lunde. Source: X.comVetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33Research, compared the difference between Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) CME futures trading performances on their launch day, and it is clear that SOL’s CME futures volume and open interest came in far below its competitors. However, Lunde pointed out that if normalized volumes to the market cap are evaluated, SOL’s launch “aligns closer to the two.”Was the SOL CME futures launch a dud?Throughout the current bull market, spot ETF approvals and CME futures contract launches have consistently boosted investor sentiment and put wind behind the sails of various cryptocurrencies. Comparing the normalized volumes adjusted for the market cap differences of BTC, ETH and SOL on their first CME futures trading day provides a fairer comparative analysis.Normalized volume measures trading activity relative to a crypto asset’s market cap, offering a transparent evaluation across different cryptocurrencies. This metric is valuable since it allows an understanding of institutional engagement with respect to a crypto asset’s market cap. Normalized volume comparison. Source: CointelegraphAs shown above, Bitcoin has the highest normalized volume with 0.0319%, while ETH and SOL fell behind with 0.0173% and 0.0166%, respectively. A greater normalized volume suggests higher investor interest per unit or market cap for Bitcoin. Additionally, the similarity between ETH’s and SOL’s normalized volumes (roughly 0.017%) indicates that Solana’s trading activity scale is similar to Ether’s despite the trading volume differences of more than $20 million on day 1 between ETH and SOL’s CME futures. Related: Solana deletes ‘cringe’ ad criticized for being ‘tone deaf’ on gender issuesWill SOL CME futures follow ETH or BTC’s performance?Following the debut of Bitcoin CME futures on Dec. 18, 2017, BTC declined by 26%, dropping from $19,000 to $14,000 by Dec. 31, 2017. The correction continued into 2018, marking the beginning of a collective crypto bear market. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana CME launch, price reaction. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewEther price registered a rally of 150% to a new all-time high at $4,384, 93 days after the CME futures launch on Feb. 8, 2021. Following a new all-time high, a sharp correction occurred, but the altcoin rallied again toward the end of 2021 to attain its current all-time high at $4,867 in November 2021. Considering the price trends of Bitcoin and ETH, SOL’s price may experience a less enthusiastic rally. The absence of upward price movement after its CME futures launch suggests a lack of investor excitement.However, from a long-term perspective, SOL’s presence in the CME increases the opportunities for Solana’s liquidity and price discovery as it attracts institutional engagement. A wider impact could potentially unfold over time as better market conditions and favorable bullish price and protocol revenue projections draw traders’ interest. Related: Bitcoin stalls under $85K— Key BTC price levels to watch ahead of FOMCThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Metaplanet buys the dip with 150-BTC purchase

Metaplanet, a Japanese Bitcoin treasury company, has purchased an additional 150 Bitcoin (BTC), bringing it one step closer to its plan of acquiring 21,000 BTC by 2026. The March 18 purchase cost an aggregate 1.88 billion yen ($12.6 million) or $83,671 per Bitcoin.The purchase brings Metaplanet’s total holdings to 3,200 BTC worth $261.8 million at this time of writing. Despite this latest buy, Metaplanet’s stock price has fallen 0.5% on the day. On March 5, the company’s stock price jumped 19% after it announced its latest Bitcoin buy of 497 coins.Metaplanet stock price change on March 18. Source: Google FinanceTo date, Metaplanet has issued a little over 44 million common shares of company stock to fund its Bitcoin purchases. The use of stocks to raise money to buy Bitcoin has given the company the nickname “Asia’s MicroStrategy,” as the formula follows similar actions from Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).Metaplanet’s BTC yield, a key performance indicator that shows the percentage change of total BTC holdings compared to fully diluted shares outstanding, is 60.8% for the ongoing quarter from Jan. 1, 2025, to March 18, 2025. That is a smaller change than the previous quarter, which saw a yield of 310%.Related: Japan’s Metaplanet buys more Bitcoin, explores potential US listingMetaplanet’s March 18 Bitcoin purchase makes it the 11th-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin and the largest in Asia, according to data from Bitgo.Metaplanet’s 21,000 BTC plan sparks investor interestAfter Metaplanet announced its plan to become a Bitcoin treasury company, its stock price rose 4,800% as of Feb. 10. Although its stock price has fallen 34% to 4,030 yen ($26.9) since Feb. 19, it is still well above the 150 yen ($1) that it registered on March 19, 2024.According to a company presentation, Metaplanet’s shareholder base grew 500% in 2024, with 50,000 people or entities investing in the company. Its market capitalization has increased 9,652% in one year, according to data from Stock Analysis.Related: Japan asks Apple, Google to remove unregistered crypto exchange appsMetaplanet’s rise comes as Japan has shown a softening stance toward digital assets. On March 6, the country’s ruling party moved to reduce crypto capital gains taxes by 20%. In November 2024, the government passed a stimulus package, committing to crypto tax reform.Japanese lawmaker Satoshi Hamada has asked the government to consider creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve and convert part of its foreign exchange reserve into BTC. However, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba later responded, saying the Japanese government didn’t know enough about other countries’ plans, which made it difficult for the government to express its views on the subject.Magazine: X Hall of Flame, Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin dominance will fall in 2025

‘We are worried about a recession,’ but there’s a silver lining — Cathie Wood

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes the White House is underestimating the recession risk facing the US economy stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — an oversight that will eventually force the president and Federal Reserve to enact pro-growth policies.Speaking virtually at the Digital Asset Summit in New York on March 18, Wood said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn’t worried about a recession. However, Wood said, “We are worried about a recession,” adding, “We think the velocity of money is slowing down dramatically.”Cathie Wood speaks virtually at the Digital Asset Summit. Source: CointelegraphA slowdown in the velocity of money means capital is changing hands less frequently, which is typically associated with a recession, as consumers and businesses spend and invest less money. “I think what’s happening, though, is that if we do have a recession, declining GDP, that this is going to give the president and the Fed many more degrees of freedom to do what they want in terms of tax cuts and monetary policy,” said Wood. Investors believe the first domino could fall in the coming months when the Fed puts an end to its quantitative tightening program — something bettors on Polymarket believe is 100% certain to happen before May.Meanwhile, expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of the year are growing, according to CME Group’s Fed Fund futures prices.The probability of rates being lower than they are now by the Fed’s June 18 meeting is nearly 65%. Source: CME GroupRelated: As Trump tanks Bitcoin, PMI offers a roadmap of what comes nextFocus remains long termARK and Cathie Wood have been active cryptocurrency investors for many years. ARK and 21Shares’ spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved on Jan. 11, 2024, and currently has more than $3.9 billion in net assets, according to Yahoo Finance data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded heavy outflows in recent weeks, but the overall trend shows investors are holding their positions. Source: FarsideARK also offers crypto portfolio solutions to wealth managers through its partnership with Eaglebrook Advisors. Wood told the New York Digital Asset Summit that “long-term innovation wins as we go through these trials and tribulations,” referring to the recent market correction. When asked if crypto assets remain an “investable arc” over the long term, Wood said this strategy was the cornerstone of ARK’s investment approach. “[W]e’ve built out positions in more than just the big three,” she said, referring to Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL).This long-term arc is being supported by favorable regulations, which have improved the investment landscape dramatically. Pro-crypto policy changes are “giving institutions the green light, and if you look at our studies as long ago as 2016, we wrote a paper called ‘Bitcoin: Ringing the Bell for a New Asset Class,’ and, yet many institutions just dismissed it out of hand,” said Wood.Now, institutions are looking at ARK’s studies and saying they “have a fiduciary responsibility to expose [their] clients to a new asset class.”Magazine: Bitcoin ETFs make Coinbase a ‘honeypot’ for hackers and governments — Trezor CEO

ARK Invest joins $403M raise for AI robotics firm Apptronik

Cryptocurrency-friendly investment firm ARK Invest has joined a massive Series A funding round for Apptronik, a Texas-based firm building humanoid robots.Apptronik, on March 18, announced the successful close of an oversubscribed $403M Series A funding round, adding another $53 million to the $350 million round disclosed in February.After investing in Apptronik’s Series A round, ARK has enabled investors to access the company through its ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX), which focuses on “disruptive innovation.”Source: ARK Funds“After investing in their Series A round, the ARK Venture Fund is proud to offer investors access to Apptronik! Download SoFi and gain access today,” ARK wrote in an X post on Tuesday.Mercedes-Benz, Japan Post and Google among investorsLed by California-based B Capital and Texas-based Capital Factory, the original $350 million Series A raise also featured participation from tech mogul Google.The latest raise included new investors such as the German automotive giant Mercedes-Benz, early-stage tech investor Japan Post Capital and RyderVentures, a corporate venture capital arm of Ryder System, as well as a syndicate led by Korea Investment Partners.Apptronik’s oversubscribed raise reflects strong market demand and investor confidence in the transformative power of embodied artificial intelligence, or integration of AI into physical systems.Apptronik’s vision: Man plus machineFounded in 2016, Apptronik is a robotics company that spun out of the University of Texas at Austin’s Human-Centered Robotics Lab with the goal of bringing forth the next generation of robots.The company says it has developed 15 robotic systems, including the humanoid robot NASA Valkyrie, before unveiling Apollo — an AI-powered humanoid designed for industrial work.Apptronik’s humanoid robot at trailer unloading. Source: Apptronik“We believe that it is not Man versus Machine, but Man plus Machine that will take humanity into the next stage of evolution,” Apptronik’s website reads.According to TechCrunch, Apptronik’s humanoid work dates back to 2013, when the Human Centered Robotics Lab at the University of Austin competed in the NASA-DARPA Robotics Challenge, focusing on a humanoid robot called Valkyrie.Google’s AI division, DeepMind, has also partnered with Apptronik to deliver embodied AI for its bipedal robots.Related: Not every AI agent needs its own cryptocurrency: CZARK Invest’s investment in Apptronik further strengthens the company’s commitment to innovation and technology, as the company’s name acronym itself refers to “Active Research Knowledge.”Apart from Apptronik, ARK has supported a wide number of AI platforms, including Anthropic, OpenAI, Groq and many others.In October 2024, ARK reportedly agreed to invest at least $250 million in OpenAI’s funding round, with the AI firm becoming its third-largest holding in the Ark Venture Fund, accounting for 5% of its total assets.Seven largest companies in the Ark Venture Fund. Source: ARKAs of Feb. 28, Elon Musk’s space technology firm, SpaceX, accounts for the largest share of the fund with a weight of roughly 16%, according to the official website.Magazine: Sex robots, agent contracts a hitman, artificial vaginas: AI Eye goes wild