Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit 6-month high — Will BTC price follow?
Bullish Bitcoin (BTC) positions using leverage on the Bitfinex exchange surged to their highest level in nearly six months, reaching 80,333 BTC on March 20—equivalent to $6.92 billion. The 27.5% increase in Bitcoin margin longs since Feb. 20 has fueled speculation that the 12.5% BTC price gain from the $76,700 low on March 11 is driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.Bitfinex BTC margin longs, BTC. Source: TradingView / CointelegraphHowever, Bitcoin’s price does not always move in tandem with bullish leveraged positions on Bitfinex. For example, in the three weeks ending July 12, 2024, large investors added 13,620 BTC in margin longs, yet Bitcoin’s price fell from $65,500 to $58,000. Similarly, a two-week-long increase of 8,990 BTC in margin longs took place leading into Sept. 11, 2024, and this coincided with a price decline from $60,000.Bitcoin margin traders are highly profitable but also risk-tolerantIn the long term, these savvy investors have timed the market well, as Bitcoin’s price eventually surpassed $88,000 in November 2024, while margin long positions were reduced by 30% by year-end. Essentially, these traders are highly profitable but exhibit a much higher risk tolerance and patience than the average investor. Therefore, an increase in leverage demand does not necessarily translate into upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.Additionally, the cost of borrowing Bitcoin remains relatively low, creating opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage as traders capitalize on cheap interest rates. Currently, borrowing BTC for 60 days on Bitfinex carries an annualized cost of 3.14%, while the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures stands at 4.5%. In theory, traders can exploit this spread through ‘cash and carry’ arbitrage, profiting without direct exposure to price fluctuations.Even if one assumes that most of the $1.48 billion in margin longs are not arbitrage trades—meaning these large investors are genuinely betting on Bitcoin’s price appreciation—other exchanges may have offset part of this move. For instance, demand for Bitcoin margin longs has declined significantly on OKX over the same 30-day period.Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: OKXThe Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio on OKX currently shows longs outweighing shorts by a factor of 15, the lowest level in over three months. Historically, excessive confidence has driven this ratio above 40, most recently in late February when Bitcoin’s price surged past $105,000. Conversely, a ratio below 5 typically signals a strong bearish sentiment.Bitcoin options price balances risks of upside and downside fluctuations in BTC priceTo rule out external factors limited to margin markets, one should also analyze Bitcoin options. If traders anticipate a correction, demand for put (sell) options will rise, pushing the 25% delta skew above 6%. Conversely, during bullish periods, this metric typically falls below -6%.Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.chBetween March 10 and March 18, the Bitcoin options market showed signs of bearish sentiment but has since shifted to a neutral stance. This suggests that whales and market makers are pricing similar risks for both upward and downward price movements. Given the margin market trends on OKX and the current pricing of BTC options, a Bitcoin bull run is far from a consensus expectation.Bitcoin’s lack of bullish momentum can partly be attributed to the higher inflation outlook and weaker economic growth projections presented by the US Federal Reserve on March 19. Concerns over a potential recession, exacerbated by a global tariff war, have made investors more risk-averse. As a result, even though whales are increasing their exposure through Bitcoin margin longs, overall market sentiment remains subdued.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin volatility hits 3.6% amid heightened market uncertainty
Bitcoin (BTC) volatility climbed to 3.6% on March 19 — the highest point since August 2024, according to data from CoinGlass. The volatility reflects heightened market uncertainty amid structural unknowns in the US economy, according to Uldis Tearudklans, chief revenue officer at UK-based cryptocurrency exchange Paybis.“The policy landscape is becoming more complex with the emergence of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency,” Tearudklans said. “While the initiative to reduce government spending has bipartisan backing, the broader economic effects — particularly on employment and consumer demand — remain difficult to quantify.”The Department of Government Efficiency claims to have generated an estimated savings of $115 billion for the US government as of March 19. The alleged savings include workforce reductions, asset sales, grant cancellations, and regulatory savings. Bitcoin volatility history from March 2013 to March 2025. Source: CoinGlassAccording to Tearudklans, if fiscal tightening proceeds alongside stable or gradually declining interest rates, the resulting liquidity contraction “could create a mismatch in policy direction, limiting the intended stimulative effect of future rate cuts.”On March 19, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would leave interest rates unchanged for the time being, although it left open the possibility for two more rate cuts in 2025. Related: $77K likely the Bitcoin bottom as QT is ‘effectively dead’ — AnalystsBitcoin volatility on display since Trump’s inaugurationBitcoin’s volatility is well-known and has been on full display since US President Donald Trump was inaugurated in January 2025.Since reaching a high of $109,590 on Jan. 20, BTC price suffered a 30% retracement to a low of $77,041 during the week of March 9-15. Selling pressure has increased as more short-term buyers currently find themselves down on their investments, though demand may be slightly returning. The cryptocurrency price bounced up to around $84,000 at this time of writing.Tearudklans told Cointelegraph that the elevated volatility indicates that traders are pricing in divergent outcomes, including the possibility of fiscal contraction alongside stable or easing interest rates.“This creates a complex feedback loop where reduced government spending could limit growth, potentially forcing the Fed to maintain a cautious stance or even delay future rate cuts.”Bitcoin’s price action may also be tied to policy misalignment, he added. “While the Fed’s rate decision offers short-term clarity, the broader fiscal outlook introduces the risk of asymmetric market responses, reinforcing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles and liquidity shifts.”The volatility of Bitcoin comes as President Trump has expressed overtures to the crypto community. On March 7, he signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile in the United States. On March 20, he spoke at the 2025 Digital Asset Summit, claiming the US will be a “Bitcoin superpower.”However, Trump’s talk of tariffs and rising geopolitical tension are affecting the financial markets as a whole, including crypto.Magazine: X Hall of Flame, Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin dominance will fall in 2025
DTCC to promote ERC3643 token standard
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) — the US’s primary clearinghouse for securities transactions — has committed to promoting Ethereum’s ERC-3643 standard for permissioned securities tokens, according to a March 20 announcement. DTCC is joining the ERC3643 Association, a nonprofit dedicated to catalyzing the standard’s adoption with the goal of “promoting and advancing the ERC3643 token standard,” it said. The endorsement highlights how US regulators are embracing tokenization after President Donald Trump vowed to make America the “world’s crypto capital.” It also suggests that the Ethereum blockchain network may play an important role in the US’s permissioned security token ecosystem. “DTCC will help lead the future of tokenization and support institutional adoption at scale,” Dennis O’Connell, president of the ERC3643 Association, said in a statement.ERC-3643 is a standard for permissioned Ethereum tokens. Source: ERC3643.orgRelated: Tokenization can transform US markets if Trump clears the wayEarly mover The DTCC is a private organization closely overseen by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It settles most US securities transactions. In 2023, the DTCC processed transactions worth an aggregate of $3 quadrillion, according to its annual report. Also known as the T-REX Protocol, ERC-3643 is “an open-source suite of smart contracts that enables the issuance, management, and transfer of permissioned tokens […] even on permissionless blockchains,” according to the ERC3643 Association’s website. It relies on a custom-built decentralized identity protocol to ensure that only users meeting pre-specified conditions can become tokenholders. The DTCC has been an early mover among US financial overseers in embracing blockchain technology, piloting several initiatives related to onchain securities transactions. They include testing settling tokenized US Treasury Bills on the Canton Network and piloting private asset tokenization on an Avalanche (AVAX) subnet. In February, the clearinghouse launched ComposerX, a platform designed to streamline token creation and settlement for regulated US financial institutions.In November, the Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) — a top US financial regulator — tipped plans to explore similar technologies for onchain settlement in the derivatives markets. Magazine: Terrorism and Israel-Gaza war weaponized to destroy crypto
Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin on the future of Ethereum — DAS
Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin discussed the future of the smart contract network at the Digital Asset Summit and said layer-2 (L2) scaling networks would continue to be central to the Ethereum ecosystem.In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph’s Turner Wright, Lubin said applications will require next-generation databases powered by high-throughput blockchain technologies. The Ethereum co-founder added:“The Ethereum ecosystem is so big and so mature that it will be best for new kinds of databases — new kinds of layer 2 networks — to set up shop, as layer 2s of Ethereum. We have our own that has some great characteristics called Linea.”“Another great application, or great layer 2, that’s emerging soon is called MegaETH,” Lubin continued.The Ethereum co-founder ultimately concluded that newer layer-1 chains will have a tough time competing with the Ethereum network, which already features robust architecture and security guarantees.Joe Lubin speaking at the Digital Asset Summit. Source: Digital Asset SummitRelated: Ethereum pushes back Pectra upgrade to conduct third testnet ‘Hoodi’Investors have doubts about layer-2 approachAccording to L2Beat, there are currently over 140 unique scaling solutions for Ethereum, including 60 rollup networks.Investors have criticized Ethereum’s layer-2 networks as parasitic elements that drain the layer-1 network of revenues while only contributing minimal economic value to the base layer.Ethereum’s average gas fee dropped by 95% following the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which dramatically lowered transaction fees for layer-2 networks.This reduction in transaction fees caused a 99% collapse in revenue on the Ethereum base layer by September 2024.Network fees on the Ethereum layer-1 flatline following the Dencun upgrade. Source: The TIE TerminalSince that time, the price of Ether (ETH) has generally been in decline, plummeting to a recent low of approximately $1,759 on March 11 and leading many analysts to predict a further price decline in 2025.Data from Farside Investors shows outflows from Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have continued for 11 consecutive days amid a broader downturn in the crypto markets.The most significant day of outflows occurred on March 13, when investors pulled a collective $73.6 million from ETH ETFs as they dumped risk-on assets for less volatile alternatives such as cash, government securities and dollar-pegged stablecoins.Magazine: MegaETH launch could save Ethereum… but at what cost?
Pump.fun launches own DEX, drops Raydium
Pump.fun has launched its own decentralized exchange (DEX) called PumpSwap, potentially displacing Raydium as the primary trading venue for Solana (SOL) memecoins. Starting on March 20, memecoins that successfully bootstrap liquidity, or “bond,” on Pump.fun will migrate directly to PumpSwap, Pump.fun said in an X post. Previously, bonded Pump.fun tokens migrated to Raydium, which emerged as Solana’s most popular DEX largely thanks to memecoins trading activity. According to Pump.fun, PumpSwap “functions similarly to Raydium V4 & Uniswap V2” and is designed “to create the most frictionless environment for trading coins.”“[M]igrations were a major point of friction – they slow a coin’s momentum and introduce needless complexity for new users,” Pump.fun said. “[N]ow, migrations happen instantly and for free.”Raydium’s trading volumes surged in 2024, largely due to memecoins. Source: DeFiLlamaRelated: Solana shorts spike amid memecoin scandalsHeightened competitionThe launch comes just a few days after Raydium tipped plans to create its own memecoin launchpad — called LaunchLab — to directly compete with Pump.fun. Pump.fun and Raydium’s transition from partners to competitors stands to reshape Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem at a time when memecoin trading volumes are down dramatically from January highs. “We welcome competition because users win at the end of the day,” Alon, one of Pump.fun’s co-founders told Cointelegraph on March 20. Other upstart protocols — such as Daos.fun, GoFundMeme and Pumpkin — are also vying for a share of Solana’s memecoin market. PumpSwap plans to adopt one of rival GoFundMeme’s most popular features — revenue sharing with memecoin creators. Soon, “a percentage of protocol revenue will be shared with coin creators,” Pump.fun said.“[I]f it succeeds, millions of dollars will go towards aligning creators with their communities and incentivizing higher quality launches.” Pump.fun’s fee revenues are down sharply from January highs. Source: Dune AnalyticsDeclining memecoin activityOn Feb. 27, Cointelegraph reported that successful memecoin launches on Pump.fun were down some 80% from January highs after a series of memecoin-related scandals cooled sentiment among retail traders. As a result, Pump.fun’s average daily fee revenue declined from more than $4 million in January to just over $100,000 as of mid-March, according to data from Dune Analytics, Memecoins drove explosive growth on Solana in 2024, with the chain’s total value locked (TVL) increasing from around $1.4 billion to more than $9 billion that year, according to DefiLlama.Raydium was among the biggest beneficiaries, with daily volumes soaring from around $245 million to more than $2 billion over the course of 2024, DefiLlama data shows.In January, Raydium launched a leveraged perpetual futures trading platform in a bid to challenge incumbent Jupiter, another top Solana DeFi protocol.Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions
SEC says proof-of-work mining does not constitute securities dealing
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Corporation Finance has clarified its views on proof-of-work mining, arguing that such activities do not constitute “the offer and sale of securities” as outlined in the Securities Act of 1933, so long as they meet certain criteria.In a March 20 statement, the SEC division addressed the “mining of crypto assets that are intrinsically linked to the programmatic functioning of a public, permissionless network” and determined that decentralized PoW networks should not be treated as securities.Although the SEC’s statement did not name any specific blockchain, its views on certain PoW activities apply to permissionless networks where mining is used to participate in the consensus mechanism. The statement applies to solo miners and mining pools participating in such networks. The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance gives its view on PoW “protocol mining activities.” Source: SECAlthough Bitcoin (BTC) is by far the largest and most significant PoW chain, there are several others, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC) and Monero (XMR). US regulators have long considered Bitcoin to be a commodity and not a security — a view that also extends to Litecoin and Dogecoin, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Source: CointelegraphRelated: Trump says US will be ‘Bitcoin superpower’ as BTC price breaks 4-month downtrendA pro-crypto policy tailwindDigital asset markets, including PoW chains, are set to flourish under US President Donald Trump, who has vowed to make America the world’s blockchain and crypto capital. In addition to appointing a pro-crypto replacement to Gary Gensler at the SEC, the president has established the Council of Advisers on Digital Assets to advance common-sense regulations for the industry. On March 19, the council’s executive director, Bo Hines, revealed that a comprehensive stablecoin bill could land on the president’s desk in a matter of months. The same day, the Blockchain Association, an industry advocacy group, said a cryptocurrency market structure bill is expected by the summer. “I think we’re close to being able to get those done for August […] They’re doing a lot of work on that behind the scenes right now,” said Kristin Smith, the Blockchain Association’s CEO.Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom
‘Successful’ ETH ETF less perfect without staking — BlackRock
BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, described the firm’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) as a “tremendous success” but acknowledged a key limitation. Speaking on March 20 at the Digital Asset Summit, he noted that the ETF is “less perfect” without staking, highlighting a crucial feature absent from the current offering.“A staking yield is a meaningful part of how you can generate investment return in this space,” Mitchnick said. “And all the [Ether] ETFs, of course, at launch did not have staking. So, if that is able to get resolved…”However, adding staking to Ether ETFs is no simple task, according to Mitchnick. “It’s not as simple as a new administration just green-lighting something, and then boom, we’re all good, off to the races,” he said. “There’s a lot of fairly complex challenges that have to be figured out, but if that can get figured out, then I think it’s gonna be sort of a step change upward in terms of what we see the activity around those products is.”Panel at Digital Asset Summit 2025 with Joseph Lubin (middle) and Robbie Mitchnick (right). Source: YouTubeETH staking was first introduced in December 2020 as part of the Ethereum network’s move from a proof-of-work consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake. By February 2024, Ether staking deposits reached $85 billion, accounting for 25% of the circulating supply of the cryptocurrency.The current yield rate for staked Ether is between 2% and 7% annually. However, staking ETH comes with risks, including the possibility of slashing if a validator engages in misconduct. This potential penalty could deter traditional investors, as it introduces an additional layer of risk to their investments.Related: Ether ETFs poised to surge in 2025, analysts sayJoseph Lubin weighs in on Ethereum narrativesNarratives surrounding Ethereum have, at times, been negative during this bull run, especially because the price of Ether has lagged behind other crypto tokens.Also speaking at the Digital Asset Summit, Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin said the narrative about Ethereum to institutional investors is “too big to describe.” “It’s like trying to describe the internet protocols and the web protocols,” Lubin said, adding: “It can do everything just the way you can do pretty much anything on the web. And so, there are people who can rock all of that, who can hold a lot of the complexity and the potentiality in mind, but most people are not gonna be able to do that.”According to Lubin, the Ethereum narrative should target applications that matter to users and businesses rather than broad theoretical discussions. “We are at our broadband moment, and we will see applications like social graphs, decentralized ID, attestations, reputation, things that you can use inside of different applications.”BlackRock’s ETH pitch to investorsMitchnick noted that when talking to institutional investors, Ethereum is easier to describe at a second-grade level than a 10th-grade level.Robbie Mitchnick at Digital Asset Summit 2025. Source: YouTube“Second-grade level, it’s a technology innovation story,” Mitchnick said. “Once you start to get beyond that, it does get a little more vast, a little more complicated. It’s about being a bet on blockchain adoption and innovation. That’s part of the thesis as we communicate it to clients. And then when they wanna get down to a little more tangible level, we can talk about some of the more specific use cases that it unlocks.”BlackRock has advertised Ethereum to investors as a bet on tokenization, stablecoin adoption and decentralized finance, according to Mitchnick.Data from SoSoValue shows ETH ETFs hold a total value of $7 billion as of March 20, with a cumulative inflow of $2.5 billion. However, the ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of $358 million in the past 11 days as the cryptocurrency market has largely struggled.Magazine: Ethereum L2s will be interoperable ‘within months’ — Complete guide
ZachXBT says he unmasked mysterious 50x Hyperliquid whale
Onchain sleuth ZachXBT said he had identified the mysterious whale who profited $20 million from highly leveraged trades on Hyperliquid and GMX as a British hacker going by the name William Parker. According to ZachXBT’s March 20 X post, Parker — who was previously known as Alistair Packover before changing his name — was arrested last year for allegedly stealing around $1 million from two casinos in 2023. Parker also made headlines a decade ago for allegations of hacking and gambling, ZachXBT said.“It is abundantly clear WP/AP has not learned his lesson over the years after serving time for fraud and will likely continue gambling,” ZachXBT said.Source: ZachXBTRelated: Hyperliquid ups margin requirements after $4 million liquidation lossZachXBT said his findings are based on a phone number provided by a person who allegedly received a payment from the whale trader’s wallet address. He also said that public wallet addresses associated with the whale trader received proceeds from past onchain phishing schemes.Cointelegraph has not independently verified ZachXBT’s claims. Massive leveraged betsThe mysterious whale rose to prominence after profiting approximately $20 million from highly leveraged trades — in some cases with up to 50x leverage — on decentralized perpetuals exchanges Hyperliquid and GMX. On March 12, the trader intentionally liquidated an approximately $200 million Ether (ETH) long, causing Hyperliquid’s liquidity pool to lose $4 million. Meanwhile, the whale earned profits of some $1.8 million.Hyperliquid said the liquidation was not an exploit but rather a predictable consequence of how the trading platform operates under extreme conditions. The DEX later revised its collateral rules for traders with open positions to guard against such occurrences in the future. On March 14, the whale took another multimillion-long position, this time on Chainlink (LINK).Perpetual futures, or “perps,” are leveraged futures contracts with no expiry date. Traders deposit margin collateral — typically USDC (USDC) for Hyperliquid — to secure open positions. Magazine: ‘Hong Kong’s FTX’ victims win lawsuit, bankers bash stablecoins: Asia Express