Gov’t can realize gains on gold certificates to buy Bitcoin: Bo Hines
The Trump administration appears poised to grow its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve after the White House’s crypto council head suggested budget-neutral ways for acquiring the digital asset. “There’s been countless ideas” about how the government can acquire more Bitcoin (BTC), Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said in an interview with the Crypto in America podcast. Bo Hines said the crypto council is open to creative ways to build the government’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Source: Eleanor TerrettPerhaps the best way of doing so would be to realize the gains on the government’s gold certificates, which are priced far less than bullion is actually worth today. “I’ll actually point you to Senator [Cynthia] Lummis’ Bitcoin Act of 2025, in which she believes that we can identify the real true value of some of these gold certificates,” Hines said. “If we actually realize the gains on [these holdings], that would be a budget-neutral way to acquire more Bitcoin,” he said.As the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explains, all gold certificates held at Fed banks are “computed at a statutory price of $42.22 per troy ounce.” By comparison, spot gold is currently valued at more than $3,000 an ounce. The spot gold price has rallied 40% over the past year. Source: KitcoSenator Cynthia Lummis’ proposed BITCOIN Act of 2025 lists “Federal Reserve System gold certificates” as one source of funding for Bitcoin purchases. The bill requires that Fed banks “tender all outstanding gold certificates in their custody to the Treasury Secretary” so that the secretary can issue new certificates “that reflect the fair market value price of the gold held against such certificates by the Treasury.”Hines said he’s open to any ideas about how to grow the reserve, so long as it “doesn’t cost the taxpayer a dime.” That’s the crux of budget-neutral strategies for acquiring Bitcoin laid out in President Donald Trump’s March 6 executive order. “With all the inter-agency working group actors that will convene in these meetings, I mean, we’re going to hear some tremendous ideas about how we can do it. I just don’t want to box us in yet to what that actually looks like because I want to be able to hear from everybody.”The US government currently holds roughly 207,000 BTC seized in criminal and civil proceedings. By default, this makes America the largest known Bitcoin holder among nation-states. Bitcoin holdings by nation-state. Source: BitboRelated: US stablecoin bill likely in ‘next 2 months’ — Trump’s crypto council headBitcoin’s special statusDuring the interview, Hines reiterated Bitcoin’s special status, suggesting that the White House crypto council was treating the strategic reserve and digital asset stockpile very differently. “The reason we structured the [Strategic Bitcoin Reserve] the way we did is because Bitcoin is different. It’s unique; it’s a commodity, not a security,” said Hines, adding:“David [Sacks] likes to say it has the immaculate conception, meaning there’s no issuer. It has intrinsic stored value, and it’s traditionally accepted store of value as well. We wanted to make that distinction [between stockpile and reserve].”The White House rushed to defend Bitcoin’s special status shortly after President Trump announced plans for a digital asset stockpile, which included a smattering of large-cap altcoins. Even Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified that Bitcoin would be treated differently from the rest of the altcoins listed. Trump, pictured alongside White House crypto czar David Sacks and Bo Hines, signs an executive order establishing the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Source: David SacksIn addition to its Bitcoin acquisition targets, the Trump administration is making significant headway on cryptocurrency legislation through bipartisan cooperation. According to Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, Congress should be able to pass a stablecoin bill and crypto market structure bill this year. Speaking at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Ro Khanna (right) said there are between 70 and 80 Democrat lawmakers who now understand the importance of stablecoin legislation. Source: CointelegraphMagazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom
Rising XRP spot market volumes hint at next stage of a parabolic price rally — Analyst
XRP (XRP) price rallied 16% less than 24 hours after news that Ripple’s legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could end made headlines on March 19. However, XRP has shed half of its gains over the past two days, losing position below an important level at $2.50.XRP rally continues to be spot-drivenXRP matched its all-time high of $3.40 on Jan. 16 as soaring spot buy volumes provided a sustainable parabolic rally that lasted for weeks.A similar outlook is taking shape again in the XRP market today. Data from Velo suggests that the aggregated spot tape CVD turned positive for the first time since late January. XRP price and aggregated spot tape data. Source: Velo.chartThe aggregated spot tape cumulative trade delta indicator tracks the net difference between the aggressive buy and sell trades across multiple exchanges. When the indicator turns green and rises above zero, it signals growing buying pressure as market buy trades outnumber sell trades. This upward trend reflects persistent buyer aggression, triggering a price rise.XRP price, open interest and aggregated premium data. Source: Velo.chartA negative aggregated premium on open interest implied that the futures market has continued to bid against an XRP price rise. This means the current situation is a tussle between bullish spots and bearish perps. Related: Why is the crypto market down today?XRP may tag $2 first before chasing new highs CrediBULL Crypto, an anonymous crypto trader, implied that XRP is on track for an all-time high above $3.40 in the next few weeks, but the crypto asset will potentially retest its immediate lows around $2 before embarking on an uptrend. Using a Power of 3 technical setup, the trader said that XRP is currently in an accumulation range. This is expected to be followed by a manipulation period, where prices will potentially take out downside liquidity around $1.80 to $2. Dom, a markets analyst, said XRP’s all-time high volume weighted average price (VWAP) is still a bullish threshold for XRP, and the altcoin must “stabilize” around the $2.50 level.XRP analysis by Dom. Source: X.comWhile the immediate directional bias is hard to predict, XRP’s long-term market structure remained “constructive,” and one of the extremes ranges at $3 and $2, should be breached over the next few days. From a technical perspective, XRP could avoid a $2 dip if the prices establish a bullish close above $2.65. This creates a positive break of structure (BOS) for the token, which might convince futures traders to adopt a bullish outlook alongside spot traders. XRP 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewOn the contrary, a close below $2.23 nullifies XRP’s recent price action and reinstates the overall bearish trend. Retaining a position above the incline support (black trendline) is necessary for a higher high trend over the next few days. Despite bullish spot activity, XRP prices linger without a decisive trend shift. The market drifts in sideways consolidation, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war for control.Related: XRP price chart hints at 75% gains next as SEC ends lawsuit against RippleThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
German financial regulator prohibits sales of Ethena's USDe
The German financial regulatory authority, BaFin, has recently made a bold move by prohibiting all public sales of Ethena GmbH’s USDe token. This synthetic dollar has been deemed to violate the European Union’s MiCAR regulations, and the firm has been accused of selling unregistered securities in the region.
According to BaFin’s announcement, the firm has been ordered to freeze the reserve assets that back the token, shut down their website portal, and stop taking on new customers. In addition, the regulator has appointed a representative to monitor the situation with Ethena GmbH.
BaFin has stated that they have reasonable grounds to suspect that Ethena GmbH is selling securities in the form of sUSDe tokens without the required prospectus. These tokens are interconnected, and investors can exchange USDe tokens for sUSDe tokens. However, the ban only applies to primary sales and issuance of the token, and secondary sales will not be affected.
Despite the ban, Ethena GmbH has filed for regulatory approval under MiCA in 2024, hoping to be “grandfathered” into the existing framework. However, their application was denied by BaFin due to serious deficiencies in their business organization and a lack of compliance with the MiCA framework.
It is worth noting that there are currently around 5.4 billion Ethena tokens in circulation, but many of these were minted outside of the German jurisdiction and before MiCA took effect.
This is a developing story, and more information will be added as it becomes available. In the meantime, the regulator has temporarily blocked redemption via the Ethena GmbH exchange, but secondary sales of the token will still be allowed.
It is clear that BaFin is taking a strong stance against unregistered securities and is closely monitoring the situation with Ethena GmbH. This serves as a reminder to all companies operating in the financial sector to ensure compliance with regulations to avoid facing similar consequences.
We will continue to follow this story and provide updates as they become available. Stay tuned for more information on this developing situation.
Tornado mixer dropped from US blacklist
The US Treasury Department has dropped cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash from its sanctions list, the agency said on March 21. The removal follows a January ruling by a US appeals court, which said the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) cannot sanction Tornado’s smart contracts because they are not the property of any foreign national. According to the January court ruling, “Tornado Cash’s immutable smart contracts (the lines of privacy-enabling software code) are not the ‘property’ of a foreign national or entity, meaning […] OFAC overstepped its congressionally defined authority.”In a March 21 statement, the Treasury said OFAC removed several dozen Tornado-affiliated smart contract addresses on the Ethereum blockchain network from its sanctions list. Tornado’s native token, Tornado Cash (TORN), is up around 60% on the news, according to data from CoinMarketCap. As of March 21, TORN has a market capitalization of around $73 million and a fully diluted value (FDV) of nearly $140 million, the data shows. OFAC is the Treasury’s office for administering economic and trade sanctions on states and foreign nationals.Tornado Cash lets users pool crypto deposits into a mixer and then withdraw it later to different wallet addresses, making the original funding source difficult to track.TORN is up around 60% on the news. Source: CoinMarketCapRelated: Tornado Cash dev Alexey Pertsev’s bail a ‘crucial step’ in getting fair trial, defense saysMoney laundering allegationsIn August 2022, OFAC sanctioned Tornado Cash after alleging the blockchain protocol helped launder cryptocurrency stolen by Lazarus Group, a North Korean hacking outfit. Lazarus Group has allegedly stolen billions of dollars in crypto through various cyberattacks. In February, Lazarus was accused of pilfering $1.4 billion from digital asset exchange Bybit in the largest-ever crypto exploit. In total, Tornado Cash has purportedly facilitated the laundering of more than $7 billion in illicit funds since the protocol was launched in 2019, according to the US Treasury.In 2024, a Dutch court found Alexey Pertsev, one of Tornado Cash’s developers, guilty of money laundering and sentenced him to 64 months in prison. In February, Pertsev was released on house arrest, while he prepared an appeal of his conviction. The Ethereum Foundation has pledged to donate $1.25 million for Pertsev’s defense. “Privacy is normal, and writing code is not a crime,” the EF wrote in an X post while announcing the donation on Feb. 26.Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in
Who’s running in Trump’s race to make US a ‘Bitcoin superpower?'
US President Donald Trump wants to make his country a “Bitcoin superpower,” but the question remains as to who he is competing against. Speaking at Blockwork’s Digital Asset Summit on March 20 to a crowd of crypto industry executives and observers, he said, “Together we will make America the undisputed Bitcoin superpower and the crypto capital of the world.”The US crypto industry has benefited greatly from preferential executive orders from Trump’s White House, including the establishment of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” — a move advocates regard as a key metric for Bitcoin adoption. However, many other countries, including major US trade partners, are just not ready to take on Bitcoin as a reserve asset, begging the question of who the US is competing against to become a “Bitcoin superpower.”US allies, trade partners and rivals aren’t competing on BitcoinCompared to major trade partners and geopolitical rivals, the US is certainly far ahead of the game in terms of Bitcoin adoption. Neither the European Union, China, Mexico or Canada have taken such drastic steps toward institutionalizing the asset.China, the US’ largest trade partner by far and also its most prominent geopolitical opponent, has taken a strong stance against the asset, initially banning it outright before softening its approach slightly. China now allows mining operations but strictly prohibits the use of Bitcoin.Overall, the government has preferred to concentrate its efforts on developing a retail central bank digital currency in the form of the digital yuan. The European Union, another major US trade partner, passed its Markets in Crypto-Assets regulatory framework in May 2023, which came into full implementation by member states at the end of 2024. While the EU is ahead of the US in terms of passing concrete legislation, it offers far less preferential terms to the industry than those expected in the US’ parallel legislation currently circulating in Congress.Crypto user penetration in the EU is expected to remain essentially stagnant this year, and cryptocurrency’s popularity is low overall among the union’s richest economies. No member state has a Bitcoin reserve.Even in crypto-friendly Switzerland, which saw $52.4 billion in US service exports in 2024, there are limits to crypto endorsement and adoption. On March 1, Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel said Bitcoin wasn’t suitable as a reserve asset, citing stability, liquidity concerns and security risks.Germany’s central bank chief Joachim Nagel has also dismissed the idea of a Bitcoin reserve, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has previously criticized Bitcoin as being a poor form of money. Related: What Canada’s new Liberal PM Mark Carney means for cryptoSouth Korea doesn’t feel ready to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset, with the Bank of Korea stating that BTC is volatile and does not meet International Monetary Fund standards. Russia, for its part, has allowed crypto to be used in international settlements to circumvent sanctions. The central bank is also preparing a three-year experiment to allow select investors to trade crypto. Some legal scholars in the country have suggested establishing a crypto fund consisting of assets seized in criminal proceedings, although the Duma has yet to form one.Critics and proponents lambast “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” Critics have questioned the strategic value of the US Bitcoin reserve and who it benefits in the long run. Cornell economic professor Eswar Prasad said, “This is neither a strategic nor sensible idea but instead benefits bitcoin holders while sticking US taxpayers with the bill and exposing the government to financial risks. The US government would become a key driver of bitcoin’s price on the way up and down.”As noted by TLDR News, the point of most strategic reserves is to stock commodities that are deemed critically important to the function of a country’s economy. Governments can also create them to stabilize the price of goods that are in high demand. The US has strategic reserves of oil and grain, while China even has a strategic pork stockpile. The Bitcoin strategic reserve does neither of these, as there is no great demand among Americans for Bitcoin, and Bitcoiners certainly don’t want the price to remain stable. George Selgin, a senior fellow and director emeritus at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, said that the reserve’s stated goal of helping pay off US national debt was unrealistic. “The plan’s million-coin stash would have to more than double in value during its 20-year holding period just to compensate for the plan’s implicit interest cost. Second, the stockpile must eventually be sold to realize the gains, and you can bet that the same bitcoin holders who have managed to get the government to keep the bitcoin it already has will cry foul if it ever tries to sell any new coins it acquires,” he stated.Claims of it serving as a digital Fort Knox are “just as dubious” he said, as the gold contained therein hasn’t propped up the value of the dollar since Richard Nixon was president, taking the dollar off of the gold standard. Even Bitcoiners have taken a crack at the reserve. Charles Edwards, founder of Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, criticized the “hold only” policy of the reserve, calling it “disappointing” and a “pig in lipstick.”Source: Charles EdwardsThe reserve even proved to be something of a non-starter for Bitcoin price, with price action remaining relatively stable after Trump signed the executive order on March 6. As it stands, the US is leading a race that no one else is running. But things could change quickly. Right-wing parties sympathetic to the creation of Bitcoin reserves have been on the rise in European elections. Brazil, a major economy in the Western hemisphere, has also been weighing the possibility of a Bitcoin reserve. Furthermore, the US Bitcoin reserve allows the Treasury to purchase Bitcoin so long as it can do so in a budget-neutral manner that doesn’t come at a cost to taxpayers. The full effect of the reserve, and its influence on Bitcoin adoption, may yet be felt. Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge
Strategy announces 10% preferred stock offering to buy more Bitcoin
Strategy has announced the pricing of its latest round of perpetual preferred stock, which the company does before announcing more Bitcoin (BTC) acquisitions.According to Strategy, the latest round of preferred stock will be sold at $85 per share, with a 10% coupon, and will bring the company approximately $711 million in revenue.Market analyst Jesse Myers said that the annual 11.8% dividend distributed to investors from the latest offering suggests that Strategy can now siphon investors from the bond market, which only offers 4.2% interest.Strategy’s most recent BTC purchase occurred on March 17, when the company acquired 130 BTC, valued at roughly $10.7 million, bringing its total holdings to 499,226 BTC, valued at $41.8 billion.The March 17 acquisition was the company’s smallest purchase on record and followed a three-week break in buying. However, Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor has signaled that the company will raise more debt and sell more equity to fuel its accumulation of Bitcoin.Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases so far in 2025. Source: SaylorTrackerRelated: Michael Saylor pushes US gov’t to purchase up to 25% of Bitcoin supplyStrategy seeks fresh capital for BTC buying spreeOn March 10, Strategy announced it would periodically sell shares of its 8% Series A perpetual strike preferred stock as part of its plan to raise an additional $21 billion to buy more Bitcoin.The company followed through on March 18 by announcing a tranche of 5 million shares in Series A perpetual preferred stock to raise additional capital.Data from SaylorTracker shows the company is still up approximately 26% all-time on its investment and is sitting on over $8.6 billion in unrealized gains despite the recent market downturn.However, shares of Strategy declined by over 26% in early March since their highest point in January 2025 and plummeted by over 44% since the all-time high of roughly $543 reached on Nov. 21.Strategy price action and analysis. Source: TradingViewShares of Strategy are currently trading at around $299, up by 29% from the recent low of $231 recorded on March 11.The company’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, a weighted stock index that tracks the top 100 companies by market capitalization on the tech-focused stock exchange, injected fresh capital flows into the company but also exposed it to broader downturns in the tech market.Magazine: Coinbase and Base: Is crypto just becoming traditional finance 2.0?
Traditional financial markets won’t survive without RWA tokenization
Opinion by: Abdul Rafay Gadit, co-founder of ZIGChainAmerica’s tariff regime has apparently fueled a global trade war, forcing investors to explore stable, yield-generating alternatives. A closer look reveals that illiquidity, opacity and scalability challenges have plagued global financial markets for long. They weren’t in great shape anyway, trade war or no trade war.Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) have risen to this occasion — thankfully. For one, they ensure predictable yields, providing a haven for investors amid uncertain market conditions and unproductive volatility. Above all, though, RWAs are a lifeboat for legacy finance, as they enhance market liquidity, bring transparency to opaque markets, and make finance more democratic. Traditional financial markets need to integrate — not resist — RWAs to stay relevant in the coming decade. RWAs to the rescueIn legacy finance, capital’s “computability” occurs through slow, expensive and unreliable intermediaries like banks. For example, these entities are primarily unable to rebalance portfolios quickly. This limits market scope, and consumers bear significant losses. There are persistent trust issues across the board, while fund managers face immense administrative burdens in handling clients. The bottom line: Everyone suffers, except the value-sucking go-betweens. That’s a big reason fundraising in private equity, a key pillar of global financial markets, declined 24% in 2024, per McKinsey’s report. Likewise, as the SIFMA 2025 Capital Markets Outlook revealed, US equity issuance has decreased by 0.6% annually since 2020. Initial public offerings have been down 8.5% during this period. RWAs fix these. They make portfolio management more straightforward and seamless, with scalable capital deployment even in turbulent markets. Tokenization automates verifiable transactions, enabling precise, deterministic, trustless economies — turning the status quo on its head. It also provides investors with low-risk, low-cost and rapid access to existing and emerging global financial markets. Recent: 5 ways real-world asset tokenization is transforming TradFiNo wonder onchain RWAs increased 85% to over $15 billion in 2024. And this trend still has momentum. RWAs are poised to remain a top investment category in crypto.RWAs reached a new all-time high recently, surpassing $17 billion, with over 82,000 asset holders. Notably, tokenized private credit is the largest asset in the RWA industry, with over $11 billion in valuation. It’s clear that investors chose RWAs in the face of a $10-billion liquidation and general, persistent market volatility. Moreover, this asset class is making private credit great again, laying the foundation for future financial markets.“Smart money” bets on RWAs JPMorgan, BlackRock, UBS, Citi, Goldman Sachs — all the big names in legacy finance have moved into RWAs. Capital inflows from such “smart money” entities helped onchain private credit grow 40% last year, while tokenized treasuries surged 179% overall.All this could very well be routine diversification and capital expansion. But funds like Franklin Templeton’s Franklin Onchain US Government Money Fund (FOBXX) and BlackRock’s US dollar Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) signal a more long-term motive. Initiatives like FOBXX and BUIDL are focused on transforming money markets through lower settlement times, easier liquidity access, better trading environments and other improvements. They leverage tokenization to introduce novel yield-generating opportunities in traditionally illiquid markets like the private credit sector. As data from PricewaterhouseCoopers suggests, this could be a $1.5-trillion disruption. S&P Global also believes private credit tokenization is the “new digital frontier” that solves liquidity and transparency issues.RWAs are thus emerging as a viable, more lucrative alternative for institutional investors, who control nearly one-fourth of the $450-trillion legacy financial market. That’s a strong enough waking sign — plus there’s increasing demand from “retail” users (i.e., the remaining three-fourths of the pie).Retail is the end-game for RWAsInstitutional adoption is excellent for building initial awareness around RWAs. Like it or not, their actions move the needle. In the long run, however, individual retail users stand to benefit most from RWAs. RWAs make capital markets accessible to grassroots investors, including unbanked populations. Fractional ownership, for instance, lets those with smaller capital holdings get exposure to high-ticket assets otherwise reserved for wealthy family offices and institutions.Because of these benefits, retail users will choose RWAs over traditional, exclusive financial assets and markets. And now it’s a no-brainer for them, thanks to solutions like social investing platforms, which give users intuitive, hassle-free access to novel financial opportunities. Multiple reports from Mastercard to Tren Finance and VanEck showcase RWAs’ massive growth potential. It could be anywhere between $50 billion and $30 trillion over the next four to five years. Widespread retail adoption will drive this growth, and unless traditional markets adapt or adopt RWAs, they will lose the vast majority of their users. With institutional and retail capital moving into this emerging sector, it’s genuinely do-or-die for legacy systems.Robust tools and platforms that leverage RWAs to bridge the gap between traditional and emerging financial markets are available now. That makes it a question of intent and priority more than anything else. Catch up or become obsolete — that’s the message. It’s the wartime arc, as it has been long due. The best part is that legacy assets coming onchain and markets leveraging RWAs will be a win-win for issuers, institutions and retail users. That’s what the world needs from a financial standpoint. It’s worth all the effort.Opinion by: Abdul Rafay Gadit, co-founder of ZIGChain.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Is Bitcoin going to $65K? Traders explain why they're still bearish
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded by as much as 14% after plunging to a four-month low near $76,600 on March 11. But BTC price is down approximately 25% from its record high of around $110,000, which is normal for a “bull market correction.”Still, some analysts anticipate the Bitcoin price declines to continue in the future.“Dark cloud” hints Bitcoin is topping outBitcoin faces renewed bearish pressure after rejecting at $87,470, the descending channel resistance, with a “dark cloud cover” pattern reinforcing the downtrend, according to an analysis shared by GDXTrader on X.BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView/@GDXTraderThe dark cloud cover pattern occurs when a strong green candle is followed by a red candle that opens above the previous close but closes below the midpoint of the first candle’s body.Illustration of a dark cloud cover. Source: GoldenEye Analysis Such a shift in sentiment indicates that buyers attempted to push higher but were overpowered by sellers, often leading to further downside.Bitcoin’s failure to close within the $90,000-$93,000 resistance zone suggests a lack of buying conviction, GDXTrader noted, saying the cryptocurrency will remain under bearish pressure unless it decisively breaks above the said range.BTC price “perfect rejection” risks $65,000Bitcoin’s potential to decline further arises from its “perfect rejection” after testing the $86,000-88,000 zone as resistance, according to analysis from popular trader CrediBULL Crypto.Related: Here’s why Bitcoin price can’t go higher than $87.5KNotably, Bitcoin attempted to break toward the local supply zone marked in red but failed to sustain above the said resistance zone, illustrated by the orange circle in the chart below.BTC/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView/CrediBULL CryptoFailure to reclaim the supply zone has increased the probability of a drop toward lower support levels around $77,000-79,000 (highlighted in green) by March. Testing this area as support has led to sharp price rebounds in March.Nonetheless, if this support zone breaks, a deeper move below the $77,000-79,000 region could extend toward the $65,000-74,000 area—the larger green liquidity zone in the chart above—by April.Analyst George shared a similar outlook, as shown below.Source: George1Trader/X“Hard to stay bullish” with a bear flag patternAccording to analyst CryptOpus, Bitcoin remains tightly correlated with traditional equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX), both of which are displaying bear flag patterns on the charts.A bear flag forms when the price consolidates higher inside an ascending parallel channel. It resolves if the price breaks below the lower trendline and drops by as much as the previous downtrend’s height.Source: CryptOpusBTC is following a similar bear flag structure, with $84,000 acting as the lower trendline support. A break below this threshold could trigger a deeper sell-off toward $72,000 per the technical rule explained above.Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has grown due to a broader decline in risk-on sentiment, led by the US President Donald Trump’s global trade war. BTC/USD and Nasdaq Composite 30-day correlation. Source: TradingViewArthur Breitman, the co-founder of Tezos, has called US recession one of the crypto market’s biggest external risks.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.