TRUMP tokenholders face 90% decline from peak as unlock begins
TRUMP tokenholders face steep losses as the first vesting unlock goes live on April 18, releasing 40 million tokens, worth roughly $309 million, into circulation at a 90% discount from its peak. The unlocked tokens account for 20% of the current circulating supply and could introduce fresh volatility as a previously illiquid portion of the supply hits the market. According to CoinGecko, the TRUMP token price has fluctuated between $7.46 and $7.83 in the past 24 hours. April 18 marks the first unlock event for the TRUMP token, with steady, smaller unlocks following from that date.TRUMP emission schedule. Source: GetTrumpMemesThe TRUMP token is down 89.5% from its all-time high of $73.43 recorded on Jan. 19, just two days after launching ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The token’s value collapsed in the weeks following its debut, with over 800,000 wallets suffering a total of $2 billion in losses, according to estimates from blockchain analytics firm ChainalysisGains or losses are only realized upon sale, meaning holders won’t incur actual losses unless they choose to sell their tokens. According to the token’s website, the unlocked tokens will belong to the “Creators and CIC Digital LLC.” Related: Donald Trump’s memecoin generated $350M for creators: ReportWho owns the TRUMP token supply?According to the TRUMP token’s website, two organizations affiliated with Trump’s business umbrella own 80% of the token supply: CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. A report from MarketWatch notes that CIC Digital, an affiliate of The Trump Organization, was placed in a trust by the time of Trump’s 2024 financial disclosures to the US Federal Election Commission. CIC Digital had previously been linked to Trump’s non-fungible token collections.Related: What is TRUMP? Donald Trump’s billion-dollar memecoinFight Fight Fight LLC is another Trump-affiliated business. It is co-owned by CIC Digital and another company, Celebration Cards LLC, which was formed in Wyoming by Andrew Pierce. Fight Fight Fight LLC is synonymous with the Trump slogan “Fight Fight Fight,” which he shouted into a camera during an assassination attempt during a campaign rally.The April 18 unlock represents a “cliff” — a large, one-time release of tokens. While there are other cliff unlocks ahead, many tokens will be released at a steadier pace. For example, between April 19 and 21, around 493,000 tokens will unlock daily, according to DropsTab.Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions
Saylor, ETF investors’ ‘stronger hands’ help stabilize Bitcoin — Analyst
Bitcoin’s relatively stable price movements despite macroeconomic uncertainty is likely due to resilient spot Bitcoin ETF holders and Michael Saylor’s firm continuing to buy aggressively, according to a Bloomberg analyst.“The ETFs and Saylor have been buying up all ‘dumps’ from the tourists, FTX refugees, GBTC discounters, legal unlocks, govt confiscations and Lord knows who else,” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in an April 16 X post.Bitcoin ETF holders hold despite market volatilityBalchunas pointed out that spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have attracted $131.04 million over the past 30 days and are up $2.4 billion since Jan. 1. Balchunas called this “impressive,” noting it helps explain why Bitcoin has “been relatively stable.”“Its owners are more stable,” Balchunas said. Balchunas said Bitcoin ETF investors have “much stronger hands than most people think.” He said this “should” increase the stability and lower Bitcoin’s volatility and correlation in the long term. As of April 16, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total of $131.04 million in inflows over the past 30 days. Source: Eric BalchunasSaylor’s firm, Strategy, made its latest Bitcoin purchase on April 14, acquiring 3,459 BTC for $285.5 million at an average price of $82,618 per coin. According to Saylor Tracker, Strategy holds 531,644 Bitcoin at the time of publication.The Bitcoin Volatility Index, which measures Bitcoin’s volatility over the previous 30 days, is at 1.80% at the time of publication, according to Bitbo data. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $84,610, according to CoinMarketCap data. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has traded between $75,000 and $88,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty primarily driven by US President Donald Trump’s imposed tariffs and ongoing questions about the future of US interest rates. Despite this, Bitcoin has remained above its previous all-time high of $73,679, first surpassed in November.Bitcoin is trading at $84,610 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCapParticipants in the broader financial market have also expressed surprise at Bitcoin’s relative strength in recent times, particularly in comparison to the S&P 500.Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers on April 5, after Trump’s “Liberation Day,” that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”Related: When gold price hits new highs, history shows ‘Bitcoin follows’ within 150 days — AnalystThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
AI tokens, memecoins dominate crypto narratives in Q1 2025: CoinGecko
The cryptocurrency market is still recycling old narratives, with few new trends yet to emerge and replace the dominant themes in the first quarter of 2025.Artificial intelligence tokens and memecoins were the dominant crypto narrative in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 62.8% of investor interest, according to a quarterly research report by CoinGecko. AI tokens captured 35.7% of global investor interest, overtaking the 27.1% share of memecoins, which remained in second place.Out of the top 20 crypto narratives of the quarter, six were memecoin categories while five were AI-related.AI tokens, memecoins, were leading crypto narratives in Q1 2025: CoinGecko“Seems like we have yet to see another new narrative emerge and we are still following past quarters’ trends,” said Bobby Ong, the co-founder and chief operating officer of CoinGecko, in an April 17 X post. “I guess we are all tired from the same old trends repeating themselves.”Related: Bitcoin still on track for $1.8M in 2035, says analystInterest in memecoins saw a sharp increase ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 after his team launched the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin on Jan. 18 and the Official Melania (MELANIA) token on Jan. 19 on the Solana network.However, some industry watchers are concerned that memecoins are draining capital from utility tokens, such as Solana (SOL), limiting their price potential.SOL/USDT, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSOL has fallen by around 48% in the past three months since Trump’s inauguration, when it briefly peaked above $270, TradingView data shows.Related: Ethereum L2 development is ‘double-edged sword’ for ETH valueMemecoins “fell off a cliff” after Libra fiascoThe crypto industry took another hit after the collapse of the Libra (LIBRA) token, a memecoin endorsed by Argentine President Javier Milei, which wiped out $4 billion in market value within hours after insiders allegedly withdrew over $107 million in liquidity, causing a 94% price crash.Libra token crash. Source: Kobeissi LetterMemecoins “fell off a cliff” after the Libra scandal as the number of new tokens deployed on Solana’s Pump.fun saw a drastic fall, the report stated, adding:“Daily tokens deployed has fallen by over 56.3% from its peak in January to 31K at the end of 2025 Q1. The percentage of ‘graduated’ tokens also fell drastically to 0.7%, compared to 1.4% in 2025 January.”Memecoins deployed and graduated on Pump.fun. Source: CoinGeckoWhile the Libra scandal marked the end of the “politicam memecoin” trend, the industry’s most profitable traders are still hunting for speculative memecoin investments despite the end of the memecoin supercycle.“There was the recent meme surge and smart money is always happy to capitulate on that,” Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding that memecoins may only be a “fun play” for smart investors, as they aren’t affected by the same macroeconomic concerns as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).At the end of March, a savvy trader turned an initial investment of just $2,000 into $43 million with the popular Pepe (PEPE) memecoin, but missed selling the top, locking in a realized profit of over $10 million, despite Pepe’s over 70% decline.Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research
Solana network inflows surge — Will SOL price follow?
Over the past 30 days, crypto market participants have bridged more than $120 million in liquidity to Solana (SOL) from other blockchains, signaling renewed confidence in the network. Traders transferred the highest amount from Ethereum (ETH) at $41.5 million, followed by a $37.3 million influx from Arbitrum, according to data from Debridge. Meanwhile, users on Base, BNB Chain and Sonic moved $16 million, $14 million and $6.6 million, respectively. Total transferred amount from other chains to Solana. Source: debridgeThe return of liquidity to Solana paints a stark contrast to the network’s recent challenges. Following Argentina’s LIBRA memecoin scandal, which ensnared President Javier Milei, Solana saw investors move $485 million to other blockchains like Ethereum and BNB Chain. The current liquidity influx to Solana coincides with the return of double-digit price rallies from memecoins as POPCAT, FARTCOIN, BONK and WIF rose 79%, 51%, 25% and 21%, respectively, over the past seven days. However, further analysis shows the total generated fees for March coming in just under $46 million. For context, Solana’s fees peaked at over $400 million in January 2025. Currently, the total fees generated for the month of April are roughly $22 million. Solana total generated fees and revenue. Source: DefiLlamaRelated: Spot Solana ETFs to launch in Canada this weekSolana price has a tough uphill climb aheadFrom a technical perspective, Solana remains in a bearish trend on the 1-day chart. SOL must exhibit a bullish break of structure by closing a daily candle above $147 for a bullish trend shift. Solana 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSolana remains under the $140 level, with the 50-day exponential moving average (blue line) acting as a strong resistance. A bullish close above the 50-EMA would have increased the likelihood of a positive trend reversal, but SOL prices have stalled at current levels. On a lower time frame (LTF) chart, Solana exhibited a bearish divergence between the price and relative strength index (RSI) indicator. Historically, a bearish divergence setup has signaled a correction period for Solana in 2025. SOL has experienced four bearish divergences since January, each following a price decline. Solana 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThere is a strong similarity between its previous and current bearish divergence. Both setups took place after the price moved temporarily above the 50-day and 100-day EMA (blue and green line) on the 4-hour chart, eventually leading to a price drop. Thus, it is possible that Solana could follow a similar path in the next few days. The 1-day demand zone is the immediate area of interest for a bounce between $115 and $108. Meanwhile, in a recent X post, Glassnode reported a significant shift in Solana’s realized price distribution, with over 32 million SOL bought at the $130 level over the past few days. That is 5% of the total supply, which means the $130 level could be a strong support level in the future. The analysis added,“Below $129, we see 18M $SOL (3%) at $117.99, while above, 27M $SOL(4.76%) sit at $144.54. In the short term, $144 could act as resistance and $117 as the lower bound of the price range, with $129 serving as the key pivot zone.”Solana UTXO realized price. Source: GlassnodeRelated: Bitcoin price recovery could be capped at $90K — Here’s whyThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Price predictions 4/16: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LEO, LINK, AVAX
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $85,000, signaling that the bulls are trying to form a higher low at $83,000. The short-term price action remains susceptible to news related to the US tariffs and the ongoing trade war with China.Gold has been a clear winner during the current bout of macroeconomic uncertainty. Citing data from Bank of America (BoA), The Kobeissi Letter said that gold funds are on track to hit $80 billion in net inflows year-to-date, roughly double the amount seen in 2020. In comparison, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds’ net inflows have shrunk to just $165 million after weeks of continuous outflows, per CoinShares data.Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360However, some cryptocurrency investors are happy about gold’s rally because a popular theory suggests that Bitcoin not only copies but exceeds gold’s rally with a few months’ lag. Anonymous crypto trader Titan of Crypto said in a post on X that Bitcoin could hit $137,000 by July-August 2025.Could Bitcoin bulls build momentum and push the price above the overhead resistance? Will the altcoins also see a short-term rally? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.Bitcoin price analysisBitcoin failed to rise above the 200-day simple moving average ($87,660) on April 15, but a minor positive is that the buyers have sustained the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($83,289).BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint suggest the sellers are losing their grip. Buyers will have to propel the price above the 200-day SMA to seize control. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could jump to $95,000 and eventually to the psychologically crucial level at $100,000.Contrarily, a break and close below the 20-day EMA indicates that the bulls have given up. That could pull the pair down to $78,500 and later to $73,777.Ether price analysisEther’s (ETH) relief rally stalled at the 20-day EMA ($1,697) on April 14, suggesting that bears remain active at higher levels.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSellers will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below $1,471. If they do that, the ETH/USDT pair could fall to $1,368. Buyers will try to guard the $1,368 level, but the pair could slump to $1,150 if the bears have their way.The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $1,754. That opens the gates for a possible rally to $2,111. The 50-day SMA ($1,919) may act as a barrier, but it is likely to be crossed. Buyers will have to shove the price above $2,111 to signal that the downtrend may have ended.XRP price analysisXRP (XRP) broke below the 20-day EMA ($2.10) on April 15 and reached near the critical support at $2 on April 16. XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a possible range-bound action in the near term. The XRP/USDT pair may swing between $2 and the 50-day SMA ($2.23) for a while.A break and close above the 50-day SMA could clear the path for a rally to the resistance line. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break above it will signal a short-term trend change. On the downside, a break and close below $2 could sink the pair to $1.61.BNB price analysisBNB (BNB) has been trading inside a triangle, signaling buying near the support line and selling close to the downtrend line. BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe downsloping moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate a slight edge to the bears. There is support at $566 and then at $550. If the price rebounds off the support, the bulls will again try to shove the price above the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $644.Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to pull the price below $550 and retest the support line.Solana price analysisSellers successfully defended the 50-day SMA ($130) in Solana (SOL) and are trying to pull the price below the $120 support.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe flattish 20-day EMA ($124) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. Buyers are expected to defend the $120 to $110 support zone. If the price rebounds off the support zone, the bulls will again attempt to drive the SOL/USDT pair above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could reach $153.Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below $110, it indicates that bears remain in control. The pair could then tumble to the $95 support.Dogecoin price analysisDogecoin (DOGE) has been gradually sliding to the vital support at $0.14, where the buyers are expected to step in.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum could be weakening. If the price turns up from the current level or $0.14, the possibility of a break above the 50-day SMA ($0.17) increases. The DOGE/USDT pair will complete a double-bottom pattern on a break above $0.21, signaling that the downtrend may have ended.Conversely, a break and close below $0.14 signals the resumption of the downtrend toward the next major support at $0.10.Cardano price analysisCardano (ADA) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.64) on April 13, indicating that the bears continue to sell on rallies.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSellers will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the $0.58 support. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could slump to the critical level at $0.50. Buyers are expected to defend the level with all their might because the failure to do so may extend the downtrend to $0.40.On the upside, buyers are likely to face selling in the zone between the moving averages. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.70) opens the doors for a rally to $0.83.Related: Why is XRP price down today?UNUS SED LEO price analysisBuyers have pushed UNUS SED LEO (LEO) above the 20-day EMA ($9.39), which is a positive sign.LEO/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThere is minor resistance at the 50-day SMA ($9.58), but the level is expected to be crossed. The LEO/USD pair may then retest the critical overhead resistance of $9.90. If buyers overcome the barrier at $9.90, the pair will complete an ascending triangle pattern. That could start a move toward the target objective of $12.04.Sellers will have to pull and maintain the price below $9.24 to gain the upper hand. That could start a decline to $8.79. Chainlink price analysisBuyers are struggling to propel Chainlink (LINK) above the 20-day EMA ($12.81), but they have kept up the pressure.LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThere is minor support at $11.68, but if the level cracks, the LINK/USDT pair could plunge to the support line of the descending channel pattern. Buyers are expected to defend the level, but if the bears prevail, the pair could drop to $8.If buyers want to make a comeback, they will have to kick the price above the moving averages. The pair could then climb to $16 and later to the resistance line. A break and close above the channel signals a potential trend change.Avalanche price analysisThe failure to push Avalanche (AVAX) above the downtrend line may have attracted profit booking by the short-term bulls.AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe bears are trying to sink the AVAX/USDT pair below the 20-day EMA ($18.98). If they manage to do that, the pair could descend to the $15.27 support. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $15.27 level because a break below it may start the next leg of the downtrend to $14 and then $12.The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the downtrend line. That opens the doors for a rally to $23.50. If buyers overcome this barrier, the pair will complete a double-bottom pattern with a target objective of $31.73.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Emerging markets need boutique market-making to reach their full potential
Opinion by: Mārtiņš Beņķītis, co-founder and CEO of Gravity TeamAs crypto adoption plateaus in some developed nations, emerging markets have led the charge for adoption. Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America have become rapid growth centers, with new activity driven by limited banking options, local currency instability and growing smartphone use. The need for alternative finance in these regions is acute. While blockchain technology can deliver it, it certainly won’t be easy.A significant hurdle in emerging crypto markets is market-making, where traditional approaches have struggled as a result of specific challenges, including limited infrastructure and economic instability. Standard market-making strategies often fail or are simply unable to account for these complexities. A new approach known as “boutique market-making” can unlock growth, providing tailored liquidity solutions that consider local factors like regional regulations, cultural nuance and specific pain points for each market. This “boutique” approach will bring enormous benefits to the average person in emerging markets and, for the first time, create access to financial services and give them control over their economic outlook.Providing liquidity in emerging markets is challengingWhile the potential for growth in emerging crypto markets is clear to see, tapping into it is not. The path is fraught with challenges that require a specialized and nuanced approach. Here, standard market-making strategies are largely ineffective. Consider trying to navigate the regulatory maze of a country where the rules keep changing and the economy is delicate and volatile. That’s the reality in Argentina. Stringent capital controls create a technical minefield for crypto transactions, requiring 24/7 monitoring and hyper-reactive strategies to ensure compliance. Why would any liquidity provider want to work with such uncertainty?Then there’s the technological issue. Many local exchanges are built on outdated infrastructure with high latency and slippage. It’s far from the seamless APIs and lightning-fast execution of the world’s top platforms. It leads to traders and liquidity providers being discouraged from participating, resulting in thin order books, a persistent drought, and a vicious cycle of low liquidity and limited opportunity. FX volatility further compounds the issue. Some fiat currencies experience wild fluctuations that deliver immediate conversion risks. Many local banking systems, aiming to protect their clients from this volatility, have implemented blanket bans on crypto-related transactions, causing settlement friction. This cocktail of issues has pushed people away from centralized banking and right into the waiting arms of peer-to-peer trading, where direct transactions further fragment liquidity and make it hard for localized cryptocurrency exchanges to gain traction. These technical hurdles, however, can be overcome. They just require a contextually rich approach to market making, one that is acutely aware of every risk, issue, human need and cultural factor.Why standardized solutions fail in emerging marketsTraditional market-making firms are used to standardized protocols, which makes it hard for them to adapt, leading to inadequate liquidity failures. This is particularly evident in regions like Argentina and Turkey, where local conditions demand bespoke solutions, despite Turkey having the highest crypto adoption rate in the world at 27.1%, followed by Argentina at 23.5%. These are well above the global crypto ownership rate estimated at 11.9%.In Argentina, boutique firms can facilitate US dollar stablecoin flows to provide a crucial lifeline for those needing a stable alternative to the volatile peso and capital controls. Even considering this kind of service requires a deep understanding of local regulations and a proactive compliance approach.In Turkey, price discrepancies between global and local platforms create considerable inefficiencies. Boutique market-makers stepped in to act as bridges, smoothing out inefficiencies and ensuring fairer prices for local traders.Recent: Cryptocurrency investment should favor emerging marketsTake a look at Bolivia. Cryptocurrency was legalized in June 2024, with local crypto exchanges launching soon after but being starved of liquidity. Large firms didn’t want to touch them. Suddenly, when boutique market-makers stepped in, slippage was reduced, and prices stabilized, making trading more viable for investors of all sizes. The people won. The ability to build trust and forge lasting relationships with local communities and regulators is crucial. Hands must be shaken, and words must be kept.Stable liquidity fuels opportunitiesBoutique market makers work hard to deliver stable liquidity, in turn unlocking countless opportunities for people within emerging crypto markets. By providing consistent buy and sell orders, they reduce slippage and price volatility, creating a reliable environment for developers to build tools, platforms and decentralized applications tailored to local needs. The stability provided by boutique market makers stems from their tailored strategies, using local knowledge, navigating regulatory mazes and bridging fragmented markets. This is unlike standardized approaches, which often falter on outdated tech or compliance hurdles. For users, this means accessible, liquid markets that support practical crypto use, from remittances to daily transactions, driving real-world adoption.A boutique market making futureEmerging crypto markets stand at a tipping point. With their agility and local insight, boutique market-makers are the key to turning potential into action and opportunity. It’s time for stakeholders, exchanges, regulators and communities to properly rally behind these specialized players, nurturing ecosystems where innovation thrives and everyday users gain real access. The path ahead is about building a foundation for a decentralized economy that works for all. To get there, liquidity is essential. Opinion by: Mārtiņš Beņķītis, co-founder and CEO of Gravity Team.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase
A monthly market review by publicly traded US-based crypto exchange Coinbase shows that while the crypto market has contracted, it appears to be gearing up for a better quarter.According to Coinbase’s April 15 monthly outlook for institutional investors, the altcoin market cap shrank by 41% from its December 2024 highs of $1.6 trillion to $950 billion by mid-April. BTC Tools data shows that this metric touched a low of $906.9 billion on April 9 and stood at $976.9 billion at the time of writing. Venture capital funding to crypto projects has reportedly decreased by 50%–60% from 2021–22. In the report, Coinbase’s global head of research, David Duong, highlighted that a new crypto winter may be upon us.“Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new ‘crypto winter’ as some extreme negative sentiment has set in due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations,” he said.Related: How trade wars impact stocks and cryptoMacroeconomic woes cause crypto turmoilThe report notes that lower venture capitalist interest “significantly limits the onboarding of new capital into the ecosystem,” which is felt primarily in the altcoin sector. The cause of that, according to Duong, is the current macroeconomic environment:“All of these structural pressures stem from the uncertainty of the broader macro environment, where traditional risk assets have faced sustained headwinds from fiscal tightening and tariff policies, contributing to the paralysis in investment decision making.“According to Coinbase researchers, those facts have resulted in “a difficult cyclical outlook for the digital asset space,” and warrant continued caution in the next four to six weeks. Still, the report’s author said that the market is likely to change directions explosively:“When the sentiment finally resets, it’s likely to happen rather quickly and we remain constructive for the second half of 2025.“Duong cited some metrics to indicate when the crypto market is moving between bull and bear market phases, including risk-adjusted performance and the 200-day moving average.Another metric was the Bitcoin (BTC) Z-score, which compares market value and realized value to identify overbought and oversold conditions. A Z-score shows how unusual current price performance is when compared to historic data.Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted performance. Source: CoinbaseThis metric “naturally accounts for crypto’s larger volatility,” but it is also slow to react. This metric tends to generate few signals in stable markets. Coinbase’s model, based on it, determined that the bull market ended in late February but has since deemed the market neutral.Coinbase’s Z-score Bitcoin model. Source: CoinbaseInstead, Coinbase’s analyst suggested that the 200-day moving average is a better indicator for determining market trends. It smooths out short-term noise while being relevant by considering the last 200 days’ worth of market data.Coinbase’s 200-day moving average Bitcoin model. Source: CoinbaseThe report also said that gauging the broader crypto market’s trend by the direction in which Bitcoin is moving is increasingly less reliable. This is because crypto expands into new sectors with decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), artificial intelligence agents, and more, all with particular market forces independent of Bitcoin.Related: Bitcoin’s wide price range to continue, no longer a ’long only’ bet — AnalystAre we in a bear market?Duong points out that the 200-day moving average suggests that Bitcoin’s recent decline moved it into bear market territory in late March. Still, applying the same model to the Coin50 Coinbase index based on the top 50 crypto assets shows a bear market since the end of February.Coinbase’s 200-day moving average model applied to the Coin50 index. Source: CoinbaseRecent reports indicated that Bitcoin is showing growing resilience to macroeconomic headwinds compared with traditional financial markets. “Bitcoin’s decline was comparatively modest, revisiting price levels from around the US election period, “according to Wintermute.Duong sees Bitcoin becoming less of a generalized crypto indicator as a consequence of this trend. He wrote:“As Bitcoin’s role as a ‘store of value’ continues to grow, we think a holistic evaluation of crypto’s aggregate market activity will be needed to better define bull and bear markets for the asset class.“Magazine: Bitcoin eyes $100K by June, Shaq to settle NFT lawsuit, and more: Hodler’s Digest, April 6 – 12
Italy finance minister warns US stablecoins pose bigger threat than tariffs
Italy’s minister of economy and finance warned that US stablecoin policies are more concerning than President Donald Trump’s tariffs, citing the potential for these crypto assets to undermine the euro’s dominance in cross-border payments.Speaking at an event in Milan, Giancarlo Giorgetti said that while trade tariffs dominate headlines, new US policies on dollar-backed stablecoins present an “even more dangerous” threat to European financial stability, according to a Reuters report.US stablecoins allow users to invest in a widely accepted method for cross-border payments without opening a US bank account, Giorgetti said. He warned that the growing appeal of US stablecoins to Europeans should not be underestimated. Giorgetti urged European Union lawmakers to take more steps to boost the euro’s position as an international currency. He added that the digital euro under development by the European Central Bank (ECB) will be essential to minimize the need for Europeans to resort to foreign solutions. US lawmakers advance stablecoin billsPresently, stablecoin regulation in the US remains fragmented. Instead of a unified framework, multiple agencies apply existing laws to regulate stablecoins. However, lawmakers are working to implement changes, with several pieces of stablecoin legislation progressing. On April 2, the US House Financial Services Committee passed the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act. The bill is now headed to the House floor for a full vote. The bill was introduced on Feb. 6 by Committee Chair French Hill and the Digital Assets Subcommittee Chair Bryan Steil. It would ensure that stablecoin issuers provide information on their businesses, including how their tokens are backed. In addition, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act establishes rules that require issuers to maintain reserves backed one-to-one, comply with Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws, protect consumers and boost dollar dominance in the global economy. The GENIUS Act still requires approval by both chambers of Congress and a presidential signature before becoming law.Related: Stablecoins are the best way to ensure US dollar dominance — Web3 CEOECB exec renews digital euro pushApart from Giorgetti, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone also urged European lawmakers to intensify their efforts to combat dollar-backed stablecoin dominance in Europe. On April 8, Cipollone wrote an article expressing concerns about the growing popularity of US stablecoins. The official suggested launching a central bank digital currency to combat this threat to the euro. He said this would aid in preserving the monetary sovereignty of the eurozone. Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research
China selling seized crypto to top up coffers as economy slows: Report
Local governments in China are reportedly seeking ways to offload seized crypto while facing challenges due to the country’s ban on crypto trading and exchanges.The lack of rules around how authorities should handle seized crypto has spawned “inconsistent and opaque approaches” that some fear could foster corruption, lawyers told Reuters for an April 16 report.Chinese local governments are using private companies to sell seized cryptocurrencies in offshore markets in exchange for cash to replenish public coffers, Reuters reported, citing transaction and court documents. The local governments reportedly held approximately 15,000 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $1.4 billion at the end of 2023, and the sales have been a significant source of income.China holds an estimated 194,000 BTC worth approximately $16 billion and is the second largest nation Bitcoin holder behind the US, according to Bitbo. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law professor Chen Shi told Reuters that these sales are a “makeshift solution that, strictly speaking, is not fully in line with China’s current ban on crypto trading.”Countries and governments that hold BTC. Source: BitboThe issue has been exacerbated by a rise in crypto-related crime in China, ranging from online fraud to money laundering to illegal gambling. Additionally, the state sued more than 3,000 people involved in crypto-related money laundering in 2024. China crypto reserve floated as solutionShenzhen-based lawyer Guo Zhihao opined that the central bank is better positioned to deal with seized digital assets and should either sell them overseas or build a crypto reserve.Ru Haiyang, co-CEO at Hong Kong crypto exchange HashKey, echoed the suggestion saying that China may want to keep forfeited Bitcoin as a strategic reserve as US President Donald Trump is doing. Related: Bitcoin rebounds as traders spot China ‘weaker yuan’ chart, but US trade war caps $80K BTC rallyCreating a crypto sovereign fund in Hong Kong, where crypto trading is legal, has also been proposed.This issue has gained attention amid rising US-China trade tensions and Trump’s plans to regulate stablecoins and foster growth and innovation in the crypto industry.Several industry observers have suggested that China’s tariff response could result in a devaluation of the local currency, which may result in a flight to crypto. Magazine: Illegal arcade disguised as … a fake Bitcoin mine? Soldier scams in China: Asia Express
Trump’s next crypto play will be Monopoly-style game — Report
US President Donald Trump is venturing deeper into the world of digital assets, with a new project blending gaming and cryptocurrency elements, Fortune reported, citing sources familiar with the project.The project, set to launch in late April, will resemble MONOPOLY GO!, a mobile game where players travel around a board and earn money for constructing buildings in a digital city, according to the report.Bill Zanker, a member of Trump’s circle and part of the team that helped launch Trump’s memecoin and various NFT collections, is behind the game, Fortune cited the sources as saying. A spokesperson for Zanker denied any similarity to Monopoly, while confirming that Zanker is working on a game, according to the report.The Monopoly board game is owned by Hasbro, a company that acquired Parker Brothers, its original publisher, in 1991. Zanker reached out to Hasbro in May 2024 to seek a license for a Trump-branded Monopoly game, according to the sources, who requested anonymity due to the ongoing nature of business dealings. Zanker declined Fortune’s requests for an interview. Related: Trump’s tariff escalation exposes ‘deeper fractures’ in global financial systemTrump’s crypto ventures detailedOnce a crypto skeptic, Trump showed Web3 enthusiasm during his 2024 presidential campaign. The president’s crypto endeavors include Official Trump (TRUMP), a memecoin with a $1.5 billion market capitalization at this writing, along with numerous non-fungible token (NFT) projects and a decentralized finance venture called World Liberty Financial.In February, Trump-owned DTTM Operations filed for a slew of trademarks for a Trump-branded metaverse and NFT marketplace. The metaverse would allow users to shop for physical and virtual goods, enjoy transport by limousine, aircraft, automobile and train, as well as watch public service programs.Trump’s crypto ventures signal a significant change in his perspective regarding the crypto space. In 2021, Trump called Bitcoin “a scam against the dollar” and said the token was “based on thin air.” Since then, he has pivoted to court crypto voters and signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US.Web3 gaming struggles amid macroeconomic turmoilTrump’s crypto game may have trouble gaining traction. According to an April 10 report from DappRadar, daily active users of Web3 games dipped 6% in the first quarter of 2025, while investments in the sector dropped 71% quarter-over-quarter to $91 million.DappRadar cites the complex macroeconomic environment, including trade wars and geopolitical tensions, as reasons behind the slump in Web3 enthusiasm. The company notes that “investor sentiment remains cautious” in this environment.Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions